Canelo Alvarez vs. Austin Trout?

By Clarence George on February 20, 2013
Canelo Alvarez vs. Austin Trout?
Who will Floyd Mayweather face on September 14th—Canelo Alvarez or Austin Trout?

With the announcement that Robert Guerrero will be Floyd Mayweather Jr.‘s opponent on May 4, the only question that remains regarding the blockbuster Cinco de Mayo weekend is who will take on your favorite rust-haired Mexican and mine: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez.

Common sense (which, admittedly, is often more common than sensical) seems to favor Austin “No Doubt” Trout. In fact, BoxRec has the fight listed, albeit with the usual caveat of the bout being “subject to change & commission approval.”

Twenty-two-year-old Alvarez (41-0-1, 30 KOs), a pro since 2005, won the vacant WBC junior middleweight title in 2011 by beating Matthew Hatton via unanimous decision. Alvarez has successfully defended his championship five times, twice in 2012. He defeated Shane Mosley by unanimous decision in May and stopped Josesito Lopez by fifth-round TKO in September. Unbeaten, Alvarez drew once, against Jorge Juarez in 2006.

Although five years older, Trout (26-0-0, 14 KOs) has otherwise much in common with his likely opponent. Also an eight-year veteran, also undefeated, and also a junior middleweight titlist. Trout won the vacant WBA strap in 2011 (the same year “Canelo” won the WBC) by defeating Alvarez’s brother Rigoberto by unanimous decision. Blood feud! And, if not, at least along the lines of an unusually implausible 19th century novel. Trout has successfully defended his title four times, twice last year. He defeated Delvin Rodriguez in June and a past-his-prime Miguel Cotto in December, both via unanimous decision.

Following Mayweather’s victory over Guerrero on May 4 at Vegas’ MGM Grand, who will “Money” face on September 14 (the weekend of Mexican Independence Day)—Alvarez or Trout?

Trout is a quality, if dull-as-dishwater, boxer. He’s also a southpaw, which is always problematic. Most orthodox fighters are in sympathy with Willie Pep’s view that “They ought to take all left-handers, drop them in a sack, and throw the sack in a river.” That said, Trout’s fists, at least in terms of hitting power, are about as soft as a newborn chick’s behind. He has a KO record of only 54%, while Alvarez’s is around 71%.

A good fight? Yes, I think so. But Alvarez is younger and more aggressive, and that extra hitting power of his should make the difference. I predict Alvarez to win by late-round stoppage, and his holding aloft not one but two championship belts.

If I’m right (I know, that “If” is funny), we’ll have Mayweather vs. Alvarez to look forward to just four months later. “Canelo” won’t win, but he’ll give “Money” a run for his money. As TV’s Tony Baretta used to say, in keeping with the monetary theme: “You can take dat to da bank.”

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  1. Clarence George 02:05am, 04/21/2013

    While I agree, FBF, that the scores should have been closer, the judges had it right—a win for Alvarez.

  2. Former boxing fan 08:23pm, 04/20/2013

    Wow, the judging in this fight sealed the deal for me. My name says it all.

  3. Clarence George 05:38pm, 04/19/2013

    If Alvarez wins, Curtis, I expect you to take me out for a mutton chop at Keens Steakhouse.  If Trout wins…well, being right is its own reward.

  4. Curtis 03:37pm, 04/19/2013

    Clarence: I don’t think Cotto is past it at all, the fight against mayweather proved that for me….he looked full of energy & fight. A good big man always beats a good little man they say.

    Last week i heard people saying the same tune about Guillermo vs Donaire, the key factor in this fight for me is how well Trout takes Canelos power.

    Could be a very short night or an extremely long one depending on how the chips fall.

  5. Clarence George 12:22pm, 04/19/2013

    More to it than size, Curtis.  Cotto’s a much better boxer than Trout, despite the latter’s defensive skills.  Cotto’s just past it, is all.

    Can Trout beat Alvarez?  Yes, but I don’t think he will.  Alvarez is skilled and strong enough to get past his defenses…and stop him.

    Trout is one of the most boring fighters out there, but the fight will be saved by Alvarez, who’s one of the more exciting.

  6. Curtis 10:45am, 04/19/2013

    Clarence: the fact you were shocked by the cotto loss says it all…..i knew from the weigh in that it was going to be a trout win, the size dynamics were there for all to see.

    I’m going for trout by UD, but won’t be shocked if Trout is KO’d off a left hook as he seems open for it.

  7. albert fresnido 04:38pm, 04/16/2013

    i predict whoever read the other cards right will win the fight, boxing is like POKER!

  8. Clarence George 07:15pm, 02/24/2013

    Hey, Chris.  First, don’t think I was annoyed.  On the contrary.  I love vigorous debate, and you’re welcome to take me on any time.

    Addressing your points:  I agree that records can be deceiving.  Look at Deontay Wilder’s, for example.  Is Trout more skilled than Alvarez?  Arguably.  In any event, more polished.  I also agree that neither one has been impressively tested.  Does Trout have a chance of beating Alvarez?  And then some.  But I don’t think he will—I don’t see his skill as being so great as to make up for Alvarez’s superior strength and hitting power.

    I’d be amazed if “Canelo” scored a win over “Money”.  A competitive fight?  I think so.  But Mayweather is an incomparably better boxer.  And this coming from someone who’s a fan of Alvarez, but not one of Mayweather.  By the way, I might hold a different opinion if this was a couple of years from now—Mayweather’s best days will soon be behind him.

    I look forward to your next post (on this or any of my other magnificent articles).  In the meantime…I’m sleeping like a baby.

  9. chris 09:54am, 02/24/2013

    As for canelo vs mayweather, this is a scenario where canelos power can be a game changer…..We all know money is the better boxer, better defender, better all around ring general, but canelos size advantage can not be overlooked, he is stronger then cotto and a bit faster with his punches, this is a fight where both fighters have a cause to win….

  10. Your Name 09:58pm, 02/23/2013

    Ooo and I dont want you to lose any sleep over this lol

  11. Your Name 09:55pm, 02/23/2013

    What are u saying?  My point wasnt about your ability to take a punch or anything like that it was that records can be deceiving u dont think so? Off course you made good points but in that ring anything can happen, i think trout is more skilled a boxer, canelo does seem to be the stronger fighter, but he hasnt faced elite or even great opponents, trout has either but he fought cotto whose better then anyone canelo has…...look man u made your points, i gave my opinion thats all

  12. Clarence George 12:47pm, 02/23/2013

    Thanks, Chris, for taking the time to read and comment.  You deserve an answer:

    What if this and what if that and what if the other thing?  The incontrovertible fact remains that Trout isn’t a power-puncher.  Does that mean he’s a 97-pound weakling?  No.  Did I say he was?  No.  Did I say he was a poor boxer?  No.  Do I think he’s skilled enough or strong enough to take Alvarez?  No.  You disagree?  I won’t lose sleep over it.

    And another thing:  The issue isn’t if I can take a punch from Trout, but if Alvarez can.  More tellingly…can Trout take one from Alvarez?

  13. chris 12:29pm, 02/23/2013

    I love how this walk talks about trouts power as if he felt it, like did u take a punch from him who in the world are u to say he has no power, what if all the opponents he faced just had good chins…WHAT if his game plan is to box which it seems as tho it usually is, hes not a brawler but whose to say he doesnt have power, maybe he can knock down people, but again u cant say something like that by record thats not fair at all….in terms of him vs canelo thatd be the classic boxer vs fighter i cant wait to see as long as golden boy doesnt plan to change canelos diaper again

  14. Bk don 01:54pm, 02/21/2013

    Ok. there’s no arguing that Canelo has feasted on weak competition but let’s not act like b4 his sleep inducing victory over the good, but certainly not great delvin rodriguez that Trout had beaten anyone noteworthy. He put on a hell of performance against a future hof in cotto, but a guy who was smaller then him and past his prime. I would favor trout over Canelo, but he won’t be able to physically bully him around like he did the smaller cotto and his jab though sharp and pretty strong, wont push him back like it did the puerto rican. It’s in my mind a close fight. Most importantly though, i still don’t believe this fight will be on the Mayweather undercard b/c of money. I have a hard time believing that two fighters in the supporting main event are both going to make 7 figure paydays. I still think it’s Canelo v Angulo but we’ll see. I can’t think of a time when a ppv had a supporting bout where both fighers made that kind of money.

  15. Clarence George 03:01am, 02/21/2013

    I see I stirred up a bit of a hornet’s nest.  But, hey, that’s what I’m here for.

    The primary irritant seems to be that I referred to Cotto as “past-his-prime”, thus diminishing Trout’s victory.  I was actually stunned by Cotto’s loss.  The fact that Trout beat him makes clear (at least to me) that Cotto’s best days are behind him.  Trout’s a pretty good fighter, who’ll hardly hand a win to Alvarez on a silver platter, but nowhere near good enough to beat an at-his-best Cotto.

    I’m confident about my dual prediction, gents:  Alvarez beats Trout, but loses to Mayweather (who’ll of course first defeat Guerrero).

  16. AKT 01:23am, 02/21/2013

    By the way 54% knockout stats is not high, I agree. But it isn’t low either ...

  17. AKT 01:21am, 02/21/2013

    Raxman said it best.

  18. boxingislife 07:37pm, 02/20/2013

    Everyone remember the guy who wrote this article….and watch him try to bandwagon once Trout beats Canelo….Past his prime Cotto..ha…funny everyone said Cotto looked great vs Mayweather… 1 fight later hes past his prime….lmao…its ok to be a Canelo fan but dont down grade a world champ just to make people that dont follow boxing think your words are truth…

  19. Joel Craig 06:26pm, 02/20/2013

    If Canelo fights Trout you wont have to worry about him fighting Mayweather. Trout will box his ears off, maybe even stop him. With his skills he wont have to stop him because no way will canelo outscores Trout over 12 rounds

  20. raxman 06:25pm, 02/20/2013

    the main difference is that trout stepped up - finally - in quality of opposition by fighting cotto.i have no doubt (pardon the pun) canelo was planning on stepping up to quality and stepping away from journeymen and gate keepers when he signed to fight ortiz (despite ortiz being essentially a 147er) but the ortiz and then khan’s ko made golden boy second guess and lopez the blown up junior welter was the next piece of padding. Is there a high profile, hyped as a gun with a worse resume than canelo alvarez? hatton, rhodes, gomez, cintron, mosley and lopez. what a joke that this list of opponents was supposed prepare (and justify) a match with floyd. not one of those guys had a chance to beat alvarez. rhodes, hatton and gomez are past their best (their best making them journeymen) and citron and mosley completely shot (citron had mental issues long before he was shot) and lopez was completely undersized.
    this is canelo’s first fight. he’ll probably win by robbery but i fully expect trout to box his ears off and expose canelo to us all

  21. None 05:51pm, 02/20/2013

    Wow someones a Canelo fan. Past his prime Cotto? He was only considered past his prime after he fought Trout.

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