Canelo vs. Angulo Predictions

By Boxing News on March 7, 2014
Canelo vs. Angulo Predictions
It looks like a somewhat competitive fight on paper. But the fight won't be fought on paper.

Unlike his bout with Mayweather, Canelo won’t have trouble finding El Perro. He’ll be there to be hit, and he’ll be there to hit back…

Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, Canelo Alvarez (42-1-1, 30 KOs) fights Alfredo Angulo (22-3, 18 KOs) for Mexican bragging rights. Although it’s not for a title; although both fighters lost their last bouts, to Floyd Mayweather and Erislandy Lara respectively; although it’s on Showtime pay-per-view, with a nod to Canelo’s undiminished star power, it looks like a somewhat competitive fight on paper. But the fight won’t be fought on paper. Unlike his bout with Mayweather, Canelo won’t have trouble finding El Perro. He’ll be there to be hit, and he’ll be there to hit back. It should, at the very least, be a war while it lasts. This is how the Boxing.com writers see Canelo vs. Angulo.

Daniel Attias: “With both boxers coming off losses it will be interesting to see how tentative each is when the fight begins. Alvarez, coming off a points loss to the pound-for-pound king Mayweather, has a distinct advantage of being outpointed rather than stopped in his last fight, unlike Angulo who was stopped by Erislandy Lara last June. Alvarez is the younger fighter, has had more professional bouts and has never been stopped, he holds all the advantages and unless the loss to Mayweather has totally eroded his confidence I find it hard to believe he will lose this fight. If all goes to plan, I expect to see a slow start for both fighters with Alvarez coming on strong in the middle rounds and winning either a decision or a late stoppage.”

J. Fredrick Baptiste: “Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez has absolutely no reason losing this fight. He’s the exceedingly more dangerous than the one-geared Angulo. Furthermore, Alvarez has been in with the very best in the sport. Look for him to display some new tricks. ‘Canelo’ by mid-round stoppage.”

Adam Berlin: “I’ve never been impressed with Canelo Alvarez. He does many things well. He does nothing superlatively. And so he doesn’t deserve to appear on pay-per-view, which, if it has to exist at all, should feature outstanding fighters. If Mayweather hadn’t exposed Saul for what he is, someone lesser would have. Unfortunately, Angulo, whose fighting spirit is superlative, won’t be the man to knock Alvarez down another peg. The first two rounds of Alvarez/Angulo could be exciting and brutal, but Perro’s unfortunate MO is that if he doesn’t blast his opponent out quickly, he tires. Watch for Alvarez to play defense early, to work the body when he sees openings, to let his punches go in the middle rounds, and to stop Alvarez late. This fight will do nothing for Canelo’s reputation. And he’ll once again show himself to be a good, but not a great, fighter.”

Teron Briggs: “I like Alvarez to win a close 12-round decision, something like 8-4 in terms of rounds. In his previous wins against top tier opposition, whose power he was wary of or who were close to his size (i.e., Mosley and Trout), he was quite content to box them from a distance and win by points. I would be pleasantly surprised if he went into this contest with the mindset he had against the smaller Josesito Lopez or Alfonso Gomez, which was to seek and destroy. I could see Angulo possibly hurting Alvarez for the first time in his career early in the fight, but Canelo could score a late knockdown to seal the victory.”

Mike Casey: “Certainly not a stroll in the park for Saul Alvarez as Angulo is always dangerous but I don’t see Canelo blowing this one. Losing to Mayweather was no disgrace and there is still plenty for the 23-year-old Mexican to shoot for. As one or two of our readers have already noted, this isn’t a mega fight by any means, but it has the potential to be a very exciting battle between two fighters who can cause some damage. Nice too that nobody has felt the need to attach a meaningless title to it. My pick is Saul Alvarez by TKO around the eighth round.”

Mohummad Humza Elahi: “As the first caveat of any investment product states, ‘past trends are not an indication of future performance’ and I think this holds true for this fight. I still have doubts about how Canelo manages his weight going into fight night and every pound will count against him when he has to find a way to relieve the pressure Angulo will no doubt put on him. Canelo needs to box purer than ever to win and I don’t think he has it down just yet. Angulo’s fight plan should be focused on making Canelo as uncomfortable as quickly as he can. Expect big shots thrown early as I think his team will be aware that trying to go to the cards is risky with someone of Canelo’s marketability. So it’s unsurprising that I predict some controversy. I think both fighters have the goods to win but Canelo needs to deviate more from his true style than Angulo in order to impose his game. I’m going for an Angulo win in the fan’s eyes but a Canelo win on the cards with a draw being a big possibility. Expect cagey opening rounds before Angulo starts to crank up, the subsequent war will be entertaining but the finish may leave a bad taste in the mouth.”

Clarence George: “Alvarez-Angulo has all the makings of a competitive and exciting fight…while it lasts. However tough, Angulo’s come-forward style is tailor-made for Alvarez, a powerful and effective puncher, and whose versatility and shrewdness in the ring are somewhat underrated. A win for ‘Canelo’ by seventh-round TKO. Leaving aside Floyd Mayweather Jr., I don’t think there’s anyone who can beat Alvarez at 154, and I’m not excepting Erislandy Lara.”

Norman Marcus: “The Alvarez/Angulo fight doesn’t excite me. It’s a nice payday for both fighters. Can we call the winner the Light Middleweight Champion of Mexico? Perhaps. Both men are solid but limited fighters. Canelo stated that Angulo ‘was the best style for me,’ which to me means that Alfredo is tailor-made for the big redhead. The Alvarez camp considers him a safe, easy opponent to put their boy back in the win column. Canelo should win the decision. But on any given night…who knows what could happen?”

Gordon Marino: “I am picking Canelo by TKO in 8. Angulo does not have great power and is far too easy to hit. Canelo is no Astaire but he might look like it again El Perro. I don’t think it will be a competitive fight.”

Matt McGrain: “The closer this match gets, the more intriguing it appears, which is usually an indicator of a fight about to deliver, but on paper it’s all Alvarez. Faster with a slightly longer reach when married to a clear technical superiority is usually definitive, and these are all advantages Canelo enjoys. So why the intrigue? I think it’s a sense that Angulo may be approaching something like a dead end if he loses this fight coupled with the type of man that he is. Angulo quit last time out, probably justifiably after walking through some legitimately heavy fire, and that means that he can’t quit this time. Additionally, it has been reported that he stalked Alvarez mercilessly and without media and social networking to get this fight – it is a fight that he genuinely wanted, not posturing. So Angulo is a man who thinks he can win and a man who must win. A dangerous combination, especially in a fighter of his type. Alvarez is the only logical pick, but there is plenty to recommend the illogical one.”

Robert Mladinich: “Despite this being a terrific matchup, it is insulting that it is not being offered on ‘free’ Showtime. Compelling arguments could be made for both guys. Angulo could come out roaring and stop Canelo in his tracks early on. A more likely scenario is Canelo using his better boxing skills to win a one-sided, possibly even laborious decision. Alvarez W 12.” 

Ezra Salkin: “Nearly everyone believes this fight will be entertaining. I think it’ll also be competitive. I see it playing out in similar fashion as Angulo’s last fight with Lara, with Angulo coming on very strong in the first half. I’m also remembering Oscar De La Hoya’s dramatic – and controversial – win over Ike Quartey and am imagining something similar transpiring here. Canelo, possibly behind entering the championship rounds, needs something dramatic to happen in order to edge out a tiring Angulo. I think he’ll manage it, probably with help either from the referee, the judges, and his star power, snatching a controversial win from the jaws of El Perro, either by split decision or shady stoppage.”

Ted Sares: “This one borders on a mismatch and therefore is easy to predict. Angulo has been in several wars and the last one with Lara may have done some permanent damage to his eye. In any event, he is a class below the redhead who will keep him at bay with solid jabs and an occasional thunderous left hook until around the mid-rounds, at which point Canelo will open up with his full attack highlighted by a brutal body assault. The Dog will either have to be saved from himself or be waxed. Canelo by KO in the late rounds of a Mexican style massacre.”

Michael Schmidt: ““I am going to go against the grain (and probably the Matt McGrain!) on this one. Canelo’s whiskers are suspect to me. Virgil Hunter knows what he has and Angulo is going to go full throttle early. As per Kevin Iole’s comments and Zab Judah’s earlier this week (although they lean towards Canelo), look for a Hagler vs. Hearns type of engagement. If Angulo behaves otherwise he will get his ears boxed off and shame on Virgil Hunter as a trainer of the year. The Dog needs to go after Canelo early, hard, often, and relentless. Roll the dice!!!! The Ring Mag’s poll of “experts” has 22 for Canelo and 2 towards the Dog. Of course the week before the The Ring ‘experts’ polled had 18 picking Lomachenko over 3 picking Salido. Kirkland vs. the Winner – that will be as fun as this one – at some point there will be fireworks!”

G.E. Simons: “There’s no doubt that Alfredo Angulo is a good, solid fighter who has compiled a slate of wins which exhibit his own guile and undoubted one-punch, fight changing power. But whenever he has moved up in class of opponent he has been found wanting. Of his three losses, Kermit Citron soundly outpointed him, whilst James Kirkland forced a stoppage, as did Erislandy Lara in his last outing. So he comes into the ring on Saturday night on the back of a loss, hence his selection as the ideal comeback opponent for Saul – Angulo is packed with action but underpinned by vulnerability. Saul Alvarez is also coming off a loss but his loss was to Floyd Mayweather and who can beat him? So take all of the ‘where does the loser go’ implications for both out of the equation for a moment because this is a great standalone fight in its own right. It’s an exciting one. These two young, powerful fighters with aggressive philosophies and a lot to play for will light up Las Vegas on Saturday night. Betting lines right now have Canelo at -900 and although that’s a little wide for me given the possible hangover from the lesson he received at the gloves of Floyd last time out, I see him taking a stoppage win as the fight moves into its second half given his edge in speed and all-round quality.”

Ted Spoon: “I think we should all be grateful this fight is going ahead; not just because it should live up to its slogan but because Angulo should help separate Canelo the brand from Canelo the fighter. I would like to think, or rather choose to that the almighty buck hasn’t dampened this youngster’s ambition. Canelo’s good points are mighty fine – joint-buckling combinations thrown with plenty of variety. They make me smile in a way that affirms my love for the sport. His bad, or at least perceived bad points are what El Perro will be hoping to sniff out, namely stamina issues, and possible trouble with chest-to-chest brawling…does Alvarez rely on that mid-range zone like Tyson did…possibly, but even if he does there should be too much strength, knowhow and firepower in reserve for a well-worn cat like Angulo to survive. A possible corner retirement after eight.”

Peter Wood: “Does Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez – after earning $12 million dollars fighting Floyd Mayweather – still need to train hard and still need to be invested in this violent madness called boxing? $12 million dollars dilutes a guy’s desire to get punched in the face very quickly – especially a handsome fighter like Alvarez. But Alvarez should still be hungry and young enough to beat El Perro – an older fighter who gets hit easily. What Canelo learned in 12 rounds with Mayweather makes him a smarter fighter. Canelo still wants to please his fans. Canelo by KO in 6.”

Jarrett Zook: “There are a lot of boxing fans out there who feel that Canelo-Angulo is destined to be a competitive slugfest. The fight will certainly be entertaining, but look for Alvarez to control the action from the get go and methodically break down Angulo. It may take a bit of time, but eventually Canelo will get the stoppage victory in rounds 7-10. Overall Alvarez is far too skilled to lose to a one-dimensional brawler. That being said Angulo is by far the hardest hitting fighter Canelo has faced in his young career. Thus, Angulo has the proverbial puncher’s chance and we will find out just how good of a chin Alvarez has.”

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  1. Darrell 08:36pm, 03/08/2014

    Not really pulling for anyone in this fight but Canelo is the better boxer here & should win.

    Santa Cruz/Mijares has just started & I don’t think Mijares might take a beating.

  2. david 05:48pm, 03/08/2014

    Thanks for the correction Gajjers.
    Hope you all put in bets as this is anyones win. I’m leaning towards Angulo and for good reason, he has more personality than the ginger terminator :) and deserves a solid win which they can milk into a trilogy.

  3. Mike Schmidt 05:07pm, 03/08/2014

    Same day weigh ins up here in Ontario Ted, usually at or close to 10 am and I am all for them. I know there are arguments back and forth, forth and back on this. As it is this weight business is akin to a “shotgun” provision in a Shareholders agreement- the guy with more greenbacks damned near always wins and gets his way- this is “sport” and this buy your weight out is not very sporting at all. High tech training techniques allows these guys to fluctuate massively in that 24 hour period- it is scary and one wonders long term how much it takes out of their systems. We had a kid fight in New York a few years ago and contract was 156- he came in at 154- his opponent the next night looked like a freegin Cruiserweight- I damned near fell off my chair in the dressing room.  Can only imagine the sheet that will spray if somebody gets hurt really badly and it is one of these weight flux fights….

  4. Ted 04:49pm, 03/08/2014

    “BTW, this “buying my way out” of the agreed contracted weight is getting old & out of hand.”

  5. Ted 04:46pm, 03/08/2014

    Leading question. “Deep trouble” means deep trouble. Could get interesting if that happens.If Canelo loses this fight it’s the weight issue… If he runs out of gas he’s toast, but I don’t expect that to happen

  6. Mike Schmidt 04:15pm, 03/08/2014

    True enough- young man has had a large fight total for his age and less wear and tear than The Dog. What happens if Canelo gets taken into deep trouble waters….either early or mid fight….

  7. Ted 03:56pm, 03/08/2014

    Eric, Canelo is the veteran here despite his age.

  8. Mike Schmidt 02:45pm, 03/08/2014

    Remember it well Eric. A real tough loss for Bobby- the juggernaut Bobby C. came to halt and “Mike” Hamsho did his usual- pushing, head, elbows, shots to the body and head, pulling, tugging, or as my buddy Earnie Shavers would say “welcome to the big time.” Always loved Bobby’s clean combination punching by the by.  Angulo needs to get to Canelo hard and often. Mikey Garcia sees Angulo hurting Canelo but see’s the fight as a “pick-em.” Either way it should be fun to watch. I see Leo S. Cruz would like to fight Rigo- good luck- Rig will box his proverbial ears off. Adios and enjoy the scraps

  9. Eric 02:24pm, 03/08/2014

    In some ways this fight makes me think of the Bobby Czyz-Mustafa Hamsho fight waaaaaay back in ‘82. Canelo, like Czyz, is the young, skilled, fighter with matinee idol looks. Angulo, like Hamsho, is the battle scarred fighter prone to cuts, with the caveman type of style. Of course, Hamsho didn’t have the power in his mitts that “The Dog” possesses, but there face-first styles could be considered similar. Hamsho had been busted up to a bloody pulp by Hagler a year before, and was thought to be a relatively safe opponent for the upcoming Czyz. Instead of a career maker, Hamsho turned out to be a temporary career breaker. Czyz would rebound and go on to win two world titles, and have a fine career at light heavyweight and cruiserweight, but Hamsho probably prevented Czyz from a mega payday against Marvelous Marvin for the middleweight title.

  10. Ted 12:14pm, 03/08/2014

    Perro is NO Mayweather for Pete’s sakes. The Lara fight took a lot out of him. He also has stamina issues.  He simply is not in the same league as Canelo. We are being bamboozled and hoodwinked by Showtime as it presents this as a PPV. This is a sham and a scam; it’s bogus.

  11. Big Ford Reno 11:42am, 03/08/2014

    David (early post) is correct. Canelo was tapped by Cotto’s brother and he was wobbly all over the ring, did not have enough thought to hold or clinch, and was in serious trouble. If Alfredo lands clean it will be a very balance conflicted Canelo.  It hopefully is a fun action filled fight. I thought Canelo folded his cards early against Mayweather. He did not have confidence in his stamina to go hard early on for as many rounds as he could and the thought of trying to outbox Floyd was born of an ill prepared or delusional team.

  12. El Bastardo Magnifico 11:30am, 03/08/2014

    Totally agree Sneak- Let the Dog loose early, roll the dice, and go hard at Canelo off the get go. Eric I could envision this looking like a Angulo vs Kirkland type or rock-em-sock em Robots if Canelo is not really really careful. El Perro signed a photo of Bronson the Coyote/Shep so I gotta stay with The Dog. What can I say.

  13. Eric 10:30am, 03/08/2014

    Canelo’s questionable chin and stamina should be tested in this fight.

  14. Pete The Sneak 10:03am, 03/08/2014

    As I said previously, Perro will give Canelo all he can handle and may even rock the youngster a couple of times…However, if Perro does not get to Canelo early, the Red Head will make Perro pay in the middle rounds and I see Canelo winning via TKO stoppage in the 9th..Peace.

  15. Ted 08:47am, 03/08/2014

    I have the beat

  16. EL BASTARDO MAGNIFICO 08:20am, 03/08/2014

    “Canelo reminds me of a young bully….” suddenly reminded me of all that U. Solis assault allegations involving Saul and his brother. I don’t think Solis has fought since. I remember articles coming out when the arrest warrant was pulled shortly after Canelo had his Trout victory lap with the Prez of Mexico but nothing since. As a fellow dog lover I have to go with The Dog—from the heart!!!

  17. Clarence George 07:49am, 03/08/2014

    I disagree with Meinhard, if I may—I don’t at all see Alvarez as a bully.  In fact, didn’t he once show not only sportsmanship but mercy (against Lopez, I think) when he could have taken advantage of a mistake, but didn’t?  Sorry about the vagueness, but I can’t remember the specifics.

  18. Gajjers 06:19am, 03/08/2014

    Come on Meinhard, don’t tell us you want a foul-filled fight! Boxing has enough knockers as it is - may the better man win, that’s all…

  19. Meinhard Schmidt 06:02am, 03/08/2014

    a fight like this is the reason i am no betting man. i see the possible mismatch in canelos favor, but i will root for angulo to win. canelo reminds me of a young bully, and the best thing you can do is bully back, hurt him early and often… with a good dose of headbutts, elbows and low blows (to the hips)!

  20. El Bastardo Magnifico 01:52am, 03/08/2014

    Bam Bam Rios also picking The Dog.

  21. El Bastardo Magnifico 01:30am, 03/08/2014

    The Brit books have Canelo at -600 ,,, not a bad fight to put a little Clover down given Angulo’s punch power. Anything could happen in a hurry and David is right on about Cotto’s brother- When anything hit Canelo early in that fight he was hurt bad and did not have a clue as to hold on ( of course that was some time ago and Canelo is a much better fighter but Mr. Anything Can Happen will be the same if he lands on Canelo’s jaw.) Interestingly the Cuban Lara has Angulo KTFO Canelo. Khan has Angulo as well but of course he resides in the same boxing kennel as The Dog.

  22. Gajjers 11:01pm, 03/07/2014

    As the wags have said, it’s a good fight on paper, and there’s quite a bit at stake career-wise for both fighters, so it should deliver in the excitement stakes. By the way David, did you just say Vitali lost to Lewis due to a shoulder injury? I thought that it was due to an eye injury (pretty bad one too), which Angulo can sympathize with. If memory serves me well, the shoulder injury came against Chris Byrd, also no disgrace. I’ll sit on the fence for this one, but it promises to be an entertaining one. Good luck to both men…

  23. Eric 08:42pm, 03/07/2014

    Angulo over Canelo by tko in 8-9 rounds. Going for the upset.

  24. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo aka Gimpel 05:07pm, 03/07/2014

    Much more interested in how Dusty Hernandez Harrison does tonight….he’s the goods and he’s mean too.

  25. Ted 03:37pm, 03/07/2014

    AKT has the beat

  26. david 03:19pm, 03/07/2014

    can I point out that Angulo was technically stopped. He had a freakish eye injury, but was leading on all score cards and had the fight in bag and had lara beat.
    Like saying vitali was beat by lewis when his shoulder gave out,. Lewis was hanging on for dear life and the fight was all but gone.
    Angulo has more than a punchers chance in this fight and I know canelo does plenty of things well but why do we forget how Cotto’s older brother rocked him early in there fight, his whiskers are definitely suspect. Like all Mexican boxers he has a great poker face.

  27. AKT 01:08pm, 03/07/2014

    Wishful thinking if anyone realistically believes Angulo will get this. Canelo will be too quick and too skillful for him. I see Angulo taking quite a beating actually.

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