“Canelo” vs. Cotto: Prediction

By Ted Sares on November 4, 2015
“Canelo” vs. Cotto: Prediction
As for a prime Canelo Alvarez, he is naturally bigger and stronger than Miguel Cotto.

Alvarez will impose his will and strength in the mid rounds and begin backing Cotto up—and when Cotto backs up, he is done…

“Cotto rooters like the Puerto Rican to out-box the Mexican, maybe out-maneuver him…but Atlas points to Cotto’s last three outings.”—Michael Woods

“I think it will be an exciting fight, but I clearly think Canelo will win, and I even see him winning by knockout. I don’t think Cotto can deal with [the] youth, strength and speed of Canelo.”—Amir Khan

“The location of the fight also favors Alvarez. The Mexican has been victorious in five of his six Las Vegas outings, whereas Cotto has lost three of his last four contests in Sin City.”—Boxing News Staff

On November 21, boxing fans across the world will be treated to the highly-anticipated clash of two titans, Miguel Cotto vs. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. It’s a battle between Puerto Rico’s most decorated fighter Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) and Mexican superstar Canelo (45-1-1, 32 KOs).

Prediction

The old Cotto was a stalking monster who could stop his opponents with a withering body attack punctuated with savage left hooks. The post-Margarito Cotto was something less, made more tentative by Margarito’s sustained late round slaughter. The rejuvenated Cotto has now come back under Freddie Roach to be more aggressive using great foot work and technique to get the job done. The issue is whether the new version is like the old version and the thinking here, notwithstanding Freddie Roach head games, is that it is not.

Here is what the always-quotable Teddy Atlas had to say about Cotto and I could not agree more:

“His last three have been a mirage. I’m not knocking Cotto, I like him…but Sergio Martinez was a shot fighter, Delvin Rodriguez, great kid, but never been on that level, and shot. And Daniel Geale, he was dead at that weight, under middleweight, older….and he’d submitted before, showed he would do that, against Golovkin. That’s not the Cotto that everyone thinks he is now. I’m not buying it. This fight against Canelo will tell me if the last three were a mirage, or Cotto is as good as some say now.”

As for a prime Canelo (who is poised to emerge as still another Mexican boxing icon with a win), he is naturally bigger and stronger than Miguel. Indeed, a comparison of their respective legs make this difference manifest. Moreover, even though he is a veteran in his own right with plenty of experience while winning on a consistent basis., he is much younger—25 to Cotto’s 34.

Three other things:

1) Canelo (with a nod to Gabe Bracero) is coming off what arguably will be the KO of the year over James Kirkland. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LehQX1bbGQk  and note how Saul sagely looks at Kirkland’s midsection but delivers the blistering blow upstairs.
2) Canelo is not Geale; Canelo has never been floored.
3) Canelo beat Austin Trout. Cotto lost to Austin Trout.

Trevor Murray concludes in an October 13, 2015 article in Bleacher Report:

“At 25 years old, Alvarez is almost a decade younger than his adversary. Now entering his peak years in the sport, there could not be a better time for ‘Canelo’ to oppose Cotto. Saul’s superfight with Mayweather in 2013 seemingly came too early for the Juanacatlán idol, who was still developing on the big stage. Having learned invaluable lessons from his one and only defeat, Alvarez will feel supremely confident heading into his second truly elite-level encounter.”

In the end, I predict Alvarez will impose his will and strength (led by punishing jabs and withering hooks) in the mid rounds and begin backing Cotto up—and when Cotto backs up, he is done. Canelo, who has registered six KOs in his most recent ten outings, should be able to close the gap and catch a back-peddling Cotto in the late rounds, ending matters in a decisive and possibly even destructive manner.

Ted Sares is one of the world’s oldest active power lifters and holds several world and North American records. He enjoys writing about boxing.

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  1. KB 11:38am, 11/09/2015

    I’m back from Nova Scoria. Thank you kindly for your posts and a prayer for my friend Bikermike who is under the weather.

  2. bikermike 10:31pm, 11/06/2015

    ....maybe like Roberto Duran vs Iran Barkley….not overwhelming…but smarter ...used all of the tricks…and landed hard clean punches

  3. raxman 10:10pm, 11/06/2015

    I’m thinking about making a full 180 and putting my money on Cotto. I know I said I’ve thought Cotto shot since Trout but I have just rewatched Cotto’s 3 fights under Roach and have to say, that watching with an open mind, rather than dismissing his opponents for their obvious shortcomings, and instead focusing on Cotto himself, I think Cotto goes into this fight a hell of a lot better than the 7-2 under dog he is on the oz books.
    although Geale was weight drained and cursed with a new found quitter streak, Cotto looked amazing against him. his head movement both coming in and defensively was as good as I’ve seen from him.
    and if one is to critique the standard of Cotto’s recent opponents, one must cast the same eye over those of Canelo’s, and importantly question how to measure them in relation to the style of fight Cotto will bring.
    Lara a lefty who straight out ran - can’t really read anything from that.
    Kirkland, another lefty (I guess a minor consideration but one worthy of note), who like Cotto, brings the fight, and on a pure talent level is up there but the fact is; Kirkland without Wolfe is like cornflake without the milk, the JK we got gives us little insight into this fight.
    which only leaves Angulo. he’s tough kid but his boxing skills are not in anyway similar to Cotto’s - espec the Roachified Cotto who uses head movement and killer jab to get inside as opposed to Angulo’s use of the left eye.
    going back further to Floyd and Trout, two defensive minded fighters, and its clear that Canelo hasn’t faced the kind of fighter who combines legit world class boxing skills with a top shelf weapon (unless you count Floyd’s boxing mind as a weapon), the likes of which Cotto has in that left hand - the rip of course, but also the hook and even the jab. his timing of the jab has improved dramatically under roach, its as if Freddy has had the Ouija board out and is communicating with Manny Steward.

    Putting the style v style preparation aside, what of the catch weight?Surely Canelo is no longer making 154 with ease, will the extra pound make a difference or will he struggle there too.
    This fight could come down to Cotto’s conditioning and how he handles Canelos speed and power. if Roach has truly turned back the clock, and Cotto can bring the Jab and timing he used vs Sugar Shane then at the very least it will be a great fight, but I have to say I’m starting to wonder if this fight doesn’t have a bit of a Davey Moore-Roberto Duran feel to it

  4. bikermike 08:45pm, 11/06/2015

    Can we at least agree on this…...old lion vs young lion…lots of thunder in this one

  5. bikermike 08:36pm, 11/06/2015

    Given both athletes’ strengths…..this match will end early…more likely than not.  The red head is no dancer…

  6. bikermike 08:27pm, 11/06/2015

    The fall is the time…when the BULLS come out into the open ground….to set everybody straight…

    Give ‘em hell Ted..!

  7. KB 04:27pm, 11/06/2015

    Thanks mates

    I’m now in Nova Scotia preparing to set some records

  8. bikermike 11:27am, 11/06/2015

    GGG is the guy to beat…..and every fighter’s manager/promoter wants to stick handle his charge to avoid this guy….and make a lot of money…Thank heaven for Eastern European and other Nation’s great fighters…
    Maybe we;ll see the North American cartel’s broken   the Klitschko brothers did…just by training and basic skills….

    lummox lewis lost…but for that cut against Vitali Klitschko

  9. bikermike 11:13am, 11/06/2015

    the way boxing is supposed to work…..is that ...in various weight divisions…a fighter either works his way up..to be a top ten contender…so he can then fight the contenders rated above him…and become the top rated ‘available’ contender for the TITLE SHOT.

    OR…..ANOTHER FIGHTER….WHO USED TO HOLD A WORLD TITLE…AND CAN NO LONGER MAKE THE WEIGHT…..CHALLENGES THE NEXT HEAVIEST WEIGHT CHAMPION…....SAY…..ROBERTO DURAN…VS leonard ....BILLY CONN VS JOE LOUIS….MICHAEL SPINKS VS LARRY HOLMS…and like that.

    Nowadays….with the plethora of ‘world titles’...who can keep score….or champions ...nor details…....‘frinstance…..leonard vs Donny Lalonde….for ‘world lt heavyweight’ title…........leonard demanded Donny weigh in at 168….but still claimed the LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE….....I’ve had my wife’s relative’s stay for more than three days…...and like fish…....the experience still stinks

  10. bikermike 11:00am, 11/06/2015

    A very informed post earlier…..mentioned that Byrd was going to be the referee…and also that Roach was in Cotto’s corner…

    Unlike leonard….Roach is not ‘the bravest manager’ ...nor is Byrd one to let a fighter take unnecessary punishment.

    Cotto has been given this opportunity…but he’s a professional fighter in with another professional fighter…and both need this win.

    Cotto isn’;t training under Roach for two months…just to avoid punishment….he’s training under Roach to regain the confidence to deliver punishment..

  11. bikermike 10:53am, 11/06/2015

    hey Ted…..what are you doing in Atlantic Canada….when the ‘NOR’WESTERS’ are starting to blow ??

    At least it will be easy to get a hotel….lol

    To you folks that don’t know about Canada….N’OR WESTERS…are winds bordering on hurricane force…with freezing rain…
    Any sailor who did Atlantic Ocean sea time….will tell you…..that the screws come out of the water…every fifth ..seventh..and sometimes ever wave !!

  12. bikermike 10:37am, 11/06/2015

    If Joe Fraser and Mike Tyson…or Thomas Hearns ...or any other professional athlete…had engaged TED…THE BULL’s professional service…..

    They’d still be farting in silk

  13. bikermike 10:32am, 11/06/2015

    Hey Ted…..what’s with the ‘highlight’ ....about you being one of’THE OLDEST POWER LIFTERS OF THE WORLD’......fuck that…..you’re one of the BEST POWERLIFTERS IN THE WORLD ....FFS….!!!

    ...NOT TO MENTION ONE OF THE MOST WISE AND SUCCESSFUL FINANCIAL PLANNERS OF ALL TIME.

  14. bikermike 10:27am, 11/06/2015

    A lot of good posts here….from knowledgeable fight fans…

    Still…..Cotto is my guy…...

    But I’m not betting more than my share of the stripper ....when we watch this one.  Red heads are unpredictable….

  15. bikermike 10:22am, 11/06/2015

    I don’t think we’ll get cheated by buying this one Cotto and Canelo are tied for first place…..when you say TOUGHER THAN BOILED WHALE SHIT

  16. bikermike 10:13am, 11/06/2015

    Strongman…...I read your posts all the time.

    Tell me….what did you think about ‘Canelo’s’ last opponent ?  James Kirkland has had some difficulties ....as of last cupla years….

    Canelo is good….so I’m counting on a good fight…

    Good article Ted…...btw…..welcome to Canada…it’s Winter here buddy !

  17. bikermike 10:02am, 11/06/2015

    I always cheer for the old lion.

    Cotto has ten years on his opponent….and has always strapped up with top opponents.
    ‘Old Age and treachery’ , will outdo youth and exuberance….every time !!

  18. Tony 09:22pm, 11/05/2015

    If the fight goes the distance Canelo get the victory other than that Cotto beats please Canelo easy..  Canelas you did not help them against Mayweather Kirkland it’s a shot fighter ..cotto is a much better find a Canel corduroys in much better fighter than Canelo. Canelo is a flat footed boxer Cotto’s brother almost knocked Canelo

  19. Tex Hassler 06:36pm, 11/05/2015

    Cotto is in over his head and in for a very tough night. I agree with Teddy Atlas. Cotto is on the down side of his career. He is a good man but past his prime.

  20. KB 04:18pm, 11/05/2015

    THANKS LADS. Happy to see this blog get some attention though it appears it is moving down and out pretty fast. .I’m in St John, New Brunswick and have limited ability to answer your neat posts

  21. Strongman 02:52pm, 11/05/2015

    Taking nothing away from Cotto but look how great managment can make all the difference after he was beaten bad by the much smaller Manny Bob Arum gets Cotto a WBA jr middleweight fight against a limited YuriForeman who could not punch through a wet paper bag and had it at Yankee stadium using the Rabinical student Jew vs PR in the Bronx again alot of fighters just do not have that type of managment what ever happened to Yuri Foreman anyway.

  22. raxman 02:38pm, 11/05/2015

    i’ve thought cotto shot for years. since the trout fight to be honest.  i agree with T-Atlas re his last 3 opponents and with T-Bull re late stop.
    The indicator that Cotto is done is when he gets up on his toes and starts trying to box.
    canelo will retire cotto - but it wont diminish cotto’s rep one bit. His is one of the best resumes in boxing;  as it stands nearly half his fights have been vs former or current world titlists with a record of 16-4 going into this fight
    an interesting exercise is to compare the resume of Keith Thurman (i think we all agree the rising star at 147) with that of Cotto’s at the same time. its a simple reminder of just how good cotto was from fights 20-28 - taking the “0"s off Paulie, Pinto, Torres and Quintana (an opponent they share and beat around the same round albeit Cotto taking out the fresh version). Thurman on the other hand has stacked the top end of his CV with fighters past their best (Chaves and Bundu being the only undefeated fighters, neither more than B grade talents - unless youre of mind to rate Chaves for his foul filled dq loss to Rios and draw with Bradley)

  23. Strongman 02:03pm, 11/05/2015

    Cant agree more in fact I feel Mayweather fought Canelo when he did because he knew he was only going to get better he is getting much stronger and the loss actualy made Canelo a better fighter and youth is such a great advantage .Cotto has been using smoke and mirrors and Freddie Roach is a good magician in making fighters look better than they are but he wont pull a rabbit with Canelo .

  24. Don from Prov 12:59pm, 11/05/2015

    I like both these fighters but believe that both tend to be overrated—but for positive reasons: Each man seems willing to take on anyone (excepting Golovkin); Cotto is an experienced and smart pro of the kind who once provided steady challenge for upcoming fighters; Canelo appears desirous of learning his trade and is becoming a well rounded fighter; and it is not a 100% guarantee picking either.  However, I think that Mr. Ted is pretty much spot on and that youth, hand speed, and strength should prevail.

  25. The Tache 10:50am, 11/05/2015

    I’ve always been a big Cotto fan, but I can’t find much to disagree with in the article or the comments. Sad but true, Cotto is getting retired.

  26. Jhon Smithy 08:15am, 11/05/2015

    My Prediction said that Canelo Win the Fight.

  27. Gio 08:04am, 11/05/2015

    I feel for the Ricans they have no choice but to feel Cotto has a great chance.Canelo is better than Margarito ever was being a very efficient counterpuncher specialist with decent speed and good power. Cotto has his best chance going against Canelos weaknesses which are stamina and below average footwork.

  28. KB 05:00am, 11/05/2015

    FD, I’d say you are correcto amigo 8th round sounds just about right as the younger, stronger, faster, Canelo closes the show.

  29. KB 04:57am, 11/05/2015

    Thank you Pete and great post.

  30. Pete The Sneak 04:56am, 11/05/2015

    It would be more than easy for me to pick my Boricua berethren, Cotto based on that connection alone, particularly with the whole PR/Mexico thing going…But putting aside my Red, white and blue’ PR Bandera (Flag) blinders, when the fog clears it will be Canelo by late round stoppage. Cotto’s only chance is to box,, box, box and stay away from the ropes. Canelo does get frustrated when you don’t engage him and he can’t find you, however this older version of Cotto cannot sustain that type of energy zapping rhythm for a whole 12 rounds and thus when he slows down, the youngster will eventually catch him and stop my ‘Primo’ in his tracks…Canelo, 10th Round TKO…By the by, nice breakdown Toro…Peace.

  31. KB 04:53am, 11/05/2015

    ch , he is getting out at the right time = $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    If he is getting clobbered, look for Roach to call it. Or hope that Roach calls it.

    Byrd is the ref. He can be intrusive but he also is humane

  32. KB 04:50am, 11/05/2015

    Erik, his second or maternal family name is Barragán which is a fairly common Mexican name. No Irish whatsoever.

  33. KB 03:53am, 11/05/2015

    Thanks lads. I’m off to Canada

  34. Eric 08:59pm, 11/04/2015

    The Irish guy takes this Puerto Rico vs. Mexico matchup but I see it being more competitive than most people predict.

  35. c.h. 08:22pm, 11/04/2015

    I look for a prime Canelo to stop Cotto after 9. Cotto has had a great career of taking on all comers but he is now (imo) a little too shopworn from so much tough competition. Of course I was saying this before he went on his latest winning streak. So I’ll never count Miguel out. But being a big fan I want him to get out of the game “at the right time.”

  36. FrankinDallas 07:52pm, 11/04/2015

    “cotto” means “cooked” in Italian. I say his goose is cooked.
    Canelo by late KO.

  37. John aka L.L. Cool John 07:27pm, 11/04/2015

    Amen!

  38. KB 06:52pm, 11/04/2015

    Yes John. That’s how I see it as well. But Cotto wins either way because he scoops up a wheel barrel full of money. He just need to avoid getting slaughtered like in the first Margo fight. Go out with his brains intact and with enough cognitive ability to know what do to do with the money.

  39. John aka L.L. Cool John 06:47pm, 11/04/2015

    Nice breakdown, Ted, on a much anticipated fight. You’ll get no argument from me. I’ll take Canelo by KO in the championship rounds.

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