Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez Predictions

By Boxing News on September 15, 2012
Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez Predictions
We’ll find out who gets rocked the most and hardest when the opening bell finally sounds.

This is a fight fan’s fight. No one expects a chess match. There will be many punches thrown and many punches landed and both men will get rocked….

The long-awaited bout between WBC champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and his nemesis Sergio Martinez is about to begin. The son of a legend and son of a gun will finally settle their score. This fight is about more than bad blood, although there is plenty of mala sangre to go around. It’s also about whether Chavez Jr. is all he’s cracked up to be as he takes a big step up in class to get it on with one of the top five pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. Julio has youth, size, and pedigree in his corner. Sergio has seasoning, speed and ring savvy. Whether the Argentinean can counter, figuratively and literally, Chavez’s forward momentum by outsmarting and outpunching the young gun remains to be seen. But this is a fight fan’s fight. No one expects a chess match. There will be many punches thrown and many punches landed and both men will get rocked. We’ll find out who gets rocked the hardest when the opening bell sounds. This is how the writers see Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez.

Adam Berlin: “This is a tough fight to call. When Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. won his disputed version of the belt, I was skeptical. But Junior seems to prove the adage that when a fighter becomes a champion, he fights like a champion. Julio’s last three victories have been impressive, battering Manfredo Jr., throwing heavy punches in bunches against Rubio and stopping Andy Lee, a very worthy contender. Chavez Jr. has the bloodlines and he’s a big middleweight, who’ll come into this bout bursting at the seams (if he even makes weight). Across the ring will be one of boxing’s pound-for-pound bests, with lightning quick feet and power. There’s no doubt in my mind Martinez will enter the ring fight-ready, but, having seen HBO’s 24/7, and Freddie Roach’s dismay at Chavez’s work ethic, I wonder if Junior will return the favor. Martinez has been trying to get into Chavez’s head, rightfully questioning the legitimacy of his young opponent’s belt, promising to take the kid to school; to Chavez’s credit, he’s remained unfazed, supremely confident, winning the stare downs as far as I can see. This fight will be about youth vs. age, a big middle vs. a small middle, a man who received a gift title vs. a man who earned it. I’m going with the older, smaller man who’s proven he’s a member of boxing’s current elite. I see Martinez moving in and out, avoiding Chavez’s continuously forward movement, landing single shots from all angles and winning by decision, but not before Maravilla suffers some dents to his matinee-idol mug.”

Cheekay Brandon: “This fight is a game of competing unknowns. There are so X-factors that we shouldn’t be surprised by any outcome. Julio Cesar Chavez (JCC) Jr. is a popular cash cow that some say has been coddled throughout his early development, fighting handpicked opponents with almost no chance of beating him. Chavez silenced many critics in his knockout victory over Andy Lee (June 2012), who I considered to be a formidable foe. How he made short work of Lee was impressive and elevated JCC’s status in my mind. With his genes and access to the best trainers in the world, JCC is clearly an upper-echelon fighter. How upper-echelon, however, we still don’t know. We still haven’t seen him defeat a fighter with a true world championship pedigree. As we boxing pundits know from having bought the false hype of many young fighters, one never knows what type of fighter you have until you put him/her in the ring with a true champion. Sergio Martinez, for all of his recent fanfare, doesn’t have many impressive, noteworthy opponents on his resume either.  While his knockout of Paul Williams (Nov. 2010) in their rematch was impressive, we are talking about a guy who fought Kermit Cintron to a draw (Feb. 2009) and hasn’t defeated anyone of note since his victory over Williams. Fans of Sergio Martinez, myself included, are generally fans of the finer elements of the sweet science and appreciate how Martinez fights: his discipline, ring generalship, adaptability, athleticism. While his resume certainly isn’t on par with Floyd Mayweather or Andre Ward, Sergio Martinez is one of the few fighters that we’ve seen who appears to have their innate comfort in a boxing ring—that boxing sixth sense. It is fun to watch and makes him a formidable world champion. I’m inclined to favor Sergio Martinez in this bout because I’m more comfortable with his unknowns. His experience, adaptability, conditioning and overall athleticism tell me that he’ll find holes in JCC’s arsenal and exploit them. While JCC is a terrific body puncher and is a very large middleweight (he’ll likely outweigh Martinez by more than 10 lbs. on fight night), I don’t see those advantages being substantial enough to overcome Martinez’s technical superiority. An undervalued X-factor is that this is the big stage fight that Martinez has been waiting his entire career for. This is the type of stage that can bring out the best in great fighters, especially when a fighter has a chip on their shoulder or something to prove. Similar to Bernard Hopkins (vs. Felix Trinidad in 2001), this description fits ‘La Maravilla’ and I expect him to deliver. Sergio Martinez by clear decision.”

Teron Briggs: “I like Martinez by late round TKO stoppage, either by the corner or the ref. I think Martinez gets off to a good early start, using adept footwork and sharp accurate punches. He weathers an onslaught by Junior in the middle rounds where the young charge marches forward and takes three punches to land one. Martinez turns the tide by the 8th or 9th round and an exhausted Chavez gets beat up but refuses to go down, until someone eventually steps in save him.” 

Mike Casey: “I believe this fight will most likely go to a decision, which I fear won’t necessarily go to the man who has scored the most points. I do hope I am wrong. My pick has to be Martinez if all things are fair and equal. Chavez Jr. has shown steady improvement but is not a major league hitter at this level, while Sergio, like most world-class Argentineans, does not get knocked out. He certainly has more ring knowledge than his youthful opponent, which is why I believe Martinez will gather more points over the 12 rounds. However, a late TKO victory is not out of the question and would save him a lot of worry.”

Robert Cassidy: “This is definitely a worthwhile fight. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has been gaining confidence and attempting to shed the label of being a protected fighter. I thought Matthew Macklin gave Sergio Martinez a very hard time in New York and I think it proved that Sergio is not invincible. But I don’t think Chavez Jr. is quite there yet. He hasn’t faced a fighter of Sergio’s caliber and when the championship rounds arrive, Sergio is at his best. He will wear Chavez down and win by an 11th round TKO.”

Chris Gielty: “Credit must go to Julio Chavez Jr. that this fight is so highly anticipated amongst boxing fans. Eighteen months ago, outside the Chavez household, this matchup was generally considered a laugher. It’s now the proverbial pick ‘em. Martinez is fast, athletic, punches from unpredictable angles and has good stamina, but he’s a small middleweight. Chavez Jr. is strong, determined, might just have his father’s whiskers and is a massive middleweight. (If I knew what came after massive on the huge scale, I’d have described Chavez Jr. thus). Ultimately, this fight is a contrast in styles and comes down to which man can fight to his strengths, execute his game plan and impose himself on his opponent. Of course, as is often the case with the sweet science, there also are the politricks of boxing to consider. Jose Sulaiman was once quoted as describing Chavez Jr. as ‘like my godson.’ There are fighters with much less divine connections to Jose who have been left wondering what the judges saw—and the way Martinez has been talking about knocking out Chavez Jr., perhaps this thought has crossed the Argentinean’s mind. The fight is also a Top Rank promotion. Don’t be surprised if the ring dimensions and/or canvas are of the ilk which could make Usain Bolt look slow (okay, look human). All that being said, Martinez is the more experienced boxer and has the better athletic gifts. Martinez’s demeanor leading up to the fight, he has been uncharacteristically brash in talking about a knockout, may be cause for concern amongst some of his fans. However, it may also be that Martinez’s posturing is evidence of intense motivation, rather than a lack of focus. I suspect this is the case Though he may have to walk through fire to get there, I like Martinez to emerge victorious.”

Mutaurwa Mapondera: “Martinez is going to pound Chavez into a ring decal.”

Norman Marcus: “Martinez is a master boxer with great ring skills. He treats his body like a shrine and is always in shape. He is a southpaw which is never a good thing for an opponent. Chavez however is much bigger and has a steel jaw. His conditioning is better now with Freddie Roach in his corner. He will try to bore in on Martinez and land hard body shots up against the ropes to wear him down. Martinez will try to stay away and land his straight left from a safe distance. Martinez is the classic boxer-puncher. Skills over size and youth in this one. My prediction—Martinez in a UD.”

Gordon Marino: “Martinez wins by a TKO in the 8th round.”

David Matthew: “I see Jr. coming out strong and trying to overwhelm Maravilla in the early rounds with his size and bullrushing, but ultimately see Maravilla’s craft carrying the day. After spirited and competitive early rounds, I think Sergio will begin to time Jr. in the middle rounds and catch him with some telling and impacting shots. Jr.‘s chin will hold up, but I think Sergio will start to land at will in the later rounds, en route to a comfortable UD in a very entertaining fight.

Robert Mladinich: “No one is giving Chavez much of a chance, and from watching 24/7 it’s easy to see why. He is stubborn and lazy and seems to think that, despite his youth, he knows what’s best for him even though he has experienced people around him. But he has that “something” about him that makes me think he has a decent shot at winning. I know that he built his record on fighting a lot of limited punchers, but I like the way he digs in and uses that frame to keep people in place. That’s going to be hard to do against the fleet-footed Martinez, who seems better in all areas. But Chavez also seems to have that intense mindset that his father had, which will help him tremendously. My guess is Chavez wins a decision based on his sheer aggression and non-stop punching. This is a real fan’s fight, which I am really looking forward to seeing. Chavez W 12.”

Ezra Salkin: “Before I tuned into HBO’s 24/7, I was starting to think that Jr. might not only be too big for Martinez but really for anyone in the division. In the show, however, I thought Chavez looked lost, like a caricature of the son of a great Mexican fighter, stumbling around his mansion in his pink trunks with a bowl of cereal. It seems all the hype that’s been whispered by his entourage, who may just be his father’s entourage, has infiltrated that large, hittable noggin of his. My sentiment was underscored further by watching Jr. mug at Martinez during their face-off, telling the hyper-competitive, hyper-athletic, Argentine, ‘This is the best chin.’ Now I think Sergio will ice Jr. by the 10th round and I’m not sure his confidence will be able to rebound.”

Ted Sares: “The risk-reward equation favors Junior. If he loses, he still has some mega paydays down the road and he still can move up in weight. If Martinez loses, he is done for all practical purposes. That said, size and youth vs. smarts and athleticism. Both are experienced. Both are slow starters. Both are deadly closers. I see a cat and mouse game early and then Junior trying to close the gap in order to do some damaging body work. However, Sergio knows this and will be smart enough to keep the appropriate separation and play matador to Junior’s bull. Eventually, his power laden potshots will slow Chavez down and test his heretofore granite chin (and mettle). Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. will fade down the late stretch and lose—I think by stoppage. One intangible, I like the Argentinean’s corner better than Junior’s. In my view, Roach has slipped considerably of late (despite the continual awards being given him). If Junior gets into trouble, I don’t see Freddie responding fast enough thus causing Chavez Sr. to go bonkers and possibly even become a part of the discombobulation.”

Ted Spoon: “You can’t sell a good beard short; it keeps you in the fight. It can however be made obsolete. Expect Sergio to use those quick feet of his to glide about in disruptive fashion. Power will play a factor, perhaps not so much in hurting Chavez but in getting him to think again. If Julio doesn’t try to take the initiative he could quickly find himself in a dark place. Success for the Mexican may depend on Maravilla’s conditioning; more a hope than tactic. Martinez is unlikely to take this proud night with a pinch of guacamole. Maybe, just maybe if Chavez can press the issue we can see that 37-year-old body shudder…in this day of capable geriatrics it seems unlikely. Martinez to shine and stop Julio in the latter rounds. 

Peter Wood: “Chavez has never impressed me much. Although he’s young and this is his time to shine, I see Martinez shining instead. Martinez will use guile and experience to his advantage. He will conserve his energy and unload enough awkward Argentinean lefts and rights at the right time. Martinez wins.”

Follow us on Twitter@boxing_com to continue the discussion

DirecTV - Chavez vs Martinez - Showcase

Chavez vs Martinez: Face Off With Max Kellerman

HBO PPV: Chavez Jr. vs. Martinez: The Match-Up

Chávez Jr vs Martínez - Official Spot

Sergio Martinez Vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr HD Promo

Discuss this in our forums

Related Articles


This is a place to express and/or debate your boxing views. It is not a place to offend anyone. If we feel comments are offensive, the post will be deleted and continuing offenders will be blocked from the site. Please keep it clean and civil! We want to have fun. We want some salty language and good-natured exchanges. But let's keep our punches above the belt...
  1. Dr. Bill 04:04pm, 09/15/2012

    As former lt heavy amateur champ of fla all by ko and sparring mate of Ali and trainer of many amateur champs, doc of psy and student of the sweet science I predict an early KO by Martinez by rd 6. Chavez has begun to impress but he will go down early in spite of what experts say. Dr Bill

  2. the thresher 11:34am, 09/15/2012

    Don, they say steak from Argentina is as good as Kobe beef!

  3. the thresher 11:32am, 09/15/2012

    Mutaurwa Mapondera may have the beat

  4. NYIrish 11:04am, 09/15/2012

    Irish Frankie!
    If you’re looking for an argument against the merits of Joey Archer, you won’t get it from me. The list you rattled off on his resume is a who’s who of middleweights of the era, regardless of who got the decisions. I don’t believe Archer was ever down in a fight. Holly Mims was a good ten round fighter that would be a spoiler to be avoided today!
    There were great fight cards in the Garden back then that didn’t have to have champions on them to fill the house. My father took me to the fights when I was a kid at the Garden. I grew up in the neighborhood of Sunnyside Garden and went there on my own from a young age.
    I didn’t mention Archer in my post for fear of getting too longwinded.
    Maybe you or another fan could help me with something.
    BoxRec lists Joey Archer and Sugar Ray Robinsion boxing Sugar’s last fight in the Civic Center in PA. I think it was in Madison Square Garden. I’m gonna stick my neck out here but I think I saw it live in the Garden rather than on TV. Anybody go to that one? Or is my mind playing tricks?
    Enjoy the fights tonight. Keep your left up !

  5. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo 09:43am, 09/15/2012

    NYIrish-You surely have a way with words….here’s some for you….Irish Joey Archer beat Carter, Mims, Tiger, Robinson and Griffith (yes he did) and may have been the greatest Irish fighter NYC ever produced….and yes I’m considering Tunney into it!

  6. Don from Prov 08:28am, 09/15/2012

    “Martinez is going to pound Chavez into a ring decal.”—

    Very sure.  And very funny.  I loved it.

    P.S. I haven’t seen any of the 24/7 series but the comments about what was going on in camp Roach/Chavez are—I must admit—making me a LITTLE nervous that I may lose my first bet ever to “Never say Die” Ted Sares.  Then again, even if I do, the guy who I want to will have won the fight.  Win-win?

  7. NYIrish 07:22am, 09/15/2012

    Thanks for the long list of opinions from the writers to get through my morning coffee.
    Great to hear from Robert Cassidy. Your father would have given Junior fits.
    Ted Sares mentioned something I noticed but left unsaid. Freddie Roach is getting slower in the corner due to his unfortunate disease. When things went sour with Khan and he returned to the corner, a lot of things that could have been done were not. He sat on the stool for about 15 seconds and Freddie said “UH, Ya awright?” I think a chaotic scenario in the corner with Chavez Senior climbing the steps if Junior starts to catch it is a possibility.
    After watching the weigh in and 24/7 yesterday, I wouldn’t bet Junior. He hires Freddie Roach and doesn’t listen to him. He stands him up at the gym and has one of his minions call Roach’s cell phone to say he’s not showing up. When Kellerman asked Roach about why he tolerates this behavior Freddie says because he’s a world champion and “his father asked me to stay on.”  It doesn’t take a detective to surmise there’s been plenty of discord all the way around in this camp.
    Freddie says they are getting the work done. Sometimes they move the furniture around and train in the living room. WHAT ?
    Let that one sink in a bit.
    This is championship boxing, not training your little kid to box in the living room.
    The kid stumbles around in his briefs at 6pm. fresh out of bed.
    Always suspicious, you might think thay are just trying to boost the odds or lull the other camp into overconfidence.
    But the kid doesn’t look like a champion fighter. He looks soft. His neck is thin. He’s built more like a swimmer. I think he’s gonna be in the deep end tonight.
    I like the lengthy analysis of Mutaurwa Mapondera ;
    “Martinez is going to pound Chavez into a ring decal.”

  8. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo 06:07am, 09/15/2012

    Canelo and Sergio both by K.O. inside five….get your money down gents!

Leave a comment