Hopkins-Dawson II Predictions

By Boxing News on April 27, 2012
Hopkins-Dawson II Predictions
Hopkins-Dawson II will likely not be a classic bout. But it’s certainly a fight worth watching.

Bernard Hopkins, who generates intense reactions pro and con, has hit more ends of the road than he has heavy bags…

Although it’s not a fight that is generating much enthusiasm, it’s a fight where we may finally see a changing of the guard. Their first meeting at the Staples Center in L.A. has needed resolution. This is a chance to tie up loose ends. Chad Dawson, the challenger, is younger, bigger, stronger, and hungrier than the light heavyweight champion, Bernard Hopkins. That might be enough to turn the tide in his favor. But Hopkins, who generates intense reactions pro and con, has hit more ends of the road than he has heavy bags. The bout will not likely be a classic. Few are nowadays. But it’s a fight worth watching. Who will win Saturday’s bout at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City? This is how the writers at Boxing.com see it.

Adam Berlin: “Think back to Jones/Tarver II. After their first fight, Antonio Tarver felt ripped off. The rematch, held six months later, was over before the bell rang when the Magic Man confidently stated, “You got any excuses tonight, Roy?” Five minutes later, the supposed pound-for-pound king was flattened. Hopkins/Dawson I ended with an excuse—Bernard Hopkins claimed his shoulder went out , the fight was waved off, and the official ruling was a No Contest thanks to some expected WBC jockeying. But for two rounds, Dawson looked bigger and stronger and hungrier. And he’d clearly remained impervious to Hopkins’ mind games. History will repeat itself. And the similarities between Jones/Tarver and Hopkins/Dawson are many—both WBC light heavy title fights, both rematches coming six months after the first fight, both featuring a challenger disgruntled because of a perceived injustice, both featuring a champion full of excuses. I won’t be surprised if Dawson echoes Tarver’s pre-fight question, “You got any excuses tonight, Bernard?” Time will run out for The Executioner this Saturday as the 29-year-old Chad Dawson beats up the 47-year-old Bernard Hopkins in a one-sided fight.” 

Cheekay Brandon: “I have Chad Dawson taking a clear decision: 7-4-1 (7 rounds to Dawson, 4 to Hopkins, 1 even) victory. Dawson combines characteristics that give Hopkins a lot of trouble: hand speed and athleticism all on a naturally large frame. Jermain Taylor solved Hopkins via activity and hand speed, but was bullied and hurt by Hopkins at times (especially in the first fight). None of that will fly against Dawson who is a lean but strong 175 lbs. Dawson does not have Joe Calzaghe’s focus or ring generalship and it is in these areas that Hopkins hopes to exploit Dawson, especially as Dawson fades in the middle of the fight. I look for Dawson to start fast (rounds 1-4), fade (rounds 5-9), and finish strong (rounds 10-12). Unfortunately for Hopkins, he tends to take the middle rounds off as well, so we’ll be greeted to inactivity for a good stretch of the fight. Look for Dawson to re-engage in the championship rounds and look aggressive and uncharacteristically hungry, like he did toward the end of his fight with Pascal prior to the stoppage (due to a cut).

Teron Briggs: “Hopkins by controversial decision.”

Mike Casey: “I think this is Chad Dawson’s fight to lose as I don’t believe that Hopkins has too many more tricks up his sleeve. If Chad starts as purposefully as he did in the first bout—albeit with a little more care—he can stay in control to win a unanimous decision. But he must dictate the pace of the fight and guard against B-Hop’s spoiling tactics. Throwing the old fella around the place would not be a good idea!”

Christian Giudice: “After the outcome of the last fight, it’s hard to believe that Dawson doesn’t come in more motivated than ever to beat and thoroughly dominate Hopkins. Although it seems that the great Hopkins always finds a way, I think Dawson uses his speed and beats Hopkins to the punch every round in a dull unanimous-decision victory.”

Norman Marcus: “My prediction is that Dawson is too young, fast and strong for the aging Hopkins. While Bernard’s ring skills are legendary, his magnificent body continues to deteriorate bit by bit. Hopkins is in love with the attention, money and legend that surrounds him. Who wouldn’t be at this point? But he should have walked away with his belts in Montreal in 2011. Hopefully he doesn’t turn into another Evander Holyfield who also stayed in the game too long. It will be Dawson UD, 8 rounds to 4.”

Mutaurwa Mapondera: “Regarding the Hopkins/Dawson fight, I think it’s a pick ‘em fight. On the one hand Dawson is young, strong and fast and seems to have finally developed a mean streak, on the other, he’s shown himself to be mentally weak before and Hopkins is a master at exploiting any weakness he can find. I think in the end Hopkins’ “negative talent” (his ability to win not based on his strengths, but based on the weaknesses of his opponent) will see him to a decision victory unless he gets old overnight.”

Gordon Marino: “I’ll go with Dawson by a decision.”

David Matthew: “I see the unbelievable reign of Bernard Hopkins coming to an end Saturday night. Not necessarily that he’ll retire, but that we’ve seen the last of him at the elite level. Dawson is too young, too fast, too long, and most importantly, too hungry (even angry) for a victory against Hopkins. I see this fight continuing from round 2 of their first fight, where Chad was gradually imposing his physicality and patient boxing abilities to where Bernard doesn’t have much of an answer. Bernard is a master at exposing wild gunslingers who are lazy with their boxing (Pascal and Pavlik)—but against a prime, disciplined pugilist like Dawson with real ability and craft, I think he’ll struggle to a clear decision loss.

Matt McGrain: ““For me, picking against Hopkins is only something you do once he’s died.  The old man finally gets a close one on the cards, something like 7-5 on my card.”

Robert Mladinich: “Common sense dictates that Dawson should win easily, but his lack of aggression will enable the old master to squeak out a close, boring decision.”

Ted Sares: “I favor Dawson by a close decision. Father Time will remain undefeated.”

Michael Schmidt: “I don’t think Hopkins wants to ‘fight’ Dawson. By that I mean I do not think Hopkins wants to engage Dawson any more than he did Calzaghe. In Pascal, Hopkins realized that he had a guy a) with bad balance, and b) a guy that has a tendency to fade in the late rounds so he could afford to take more chances. Dawson understands this is his time to set himself up for future paydays and put himself at the top of the pecking order which will include a variety of possibilities—Cloud, redemption against Pascal, Shumenov, Kessler, etc. I think, as at the beginning of the first fight, he will start tracking and stalking Hopkins immediately. He is the bigger guy with the longer reach. Dawson by close but comfortable decision.”

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  1. Tony Capoocia 08:19pm, 04/28/2012

    Just want to know what the one judge was watching 114-114?

  2. Tony Capoocia 07:51pm, 04/28/2012

    116-112 For Chad Lets see how they have it in AC. Just don’t see how B-Hop can win this fight…well lets see what they say.

  3. Tony Capoocia 06:59pm, 04/28/2012

    For so long I have been a fan of B-Hops. I don’t want to see him get beat..but don’t have a good feeling on this. So that is why I am going with Chad. Hope I am wrong..but just don’t feel it.

  4. Your Name 06:47pm, 04/28/2012

    its all most time for fight b-hop all day by tko.

  5. hjkhjjdeds 05:32pm, 04/28/2012

    HOPKINS BY TKO OVER DAWSON!

  6. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo 08:00am, 04/28/2012

    Sr. Mapondera-“negative talent”.....two words that speaks volumes regarding Bernard Hopkins career.

  7. Tony Capoocia 02:59am, 04/28/2012

    Just to follow up, Chad is in a mind set for this fight that he will win.

  8. Tony Capoocia 02:58am, 04/28/2012

    I don’t like this pick, but just feel that Bad Chad is going to take this one. Been a B’Hop fan but something tells me in my gut that this is going to be Bad Chads night.

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