Mayweather-Canelo: My Prediction

By Ted Sares on September 11, 2013
Mayweather-Canelo: My Prediction
There is monster money to be made in a rematch should Mayweather somehow lose.


As a savvy poster from another site stated, “…the sooner you see Canelo failing to work all 3 minutes, the higher the chances are for Mayweather to get the improbable stoppage.” I really can’t say it any better except that I don’t envision a stoppage.

Like most other pundits, I see Canelo pressing Mayweather in the early action—in Cotto fashion—until Floyd completes his diagnosis of the situation (perhaps as early as the 4th round), at which point Mayweather’s usual assortment of pinpoint counters interspersed with right leads will begin to turn the tide and move him into hydro guide as he wins a somewhat boring, albeit technically interesting UD over Cinnamon Head.  However, in the unlikely event Alvarez comes in with something new and effective (like fighting continuously and/or fighting on the inside), Junior’s well-documented skills to adjust once again will be tested.

I believe Canelo’s weight drain from 170 to 152 (reminiscent of Roy Jones Jr.’s struggle prior to the first Tarver fight) will cost Canelo in the late rounds as stamina becomes a major issue. Saul, who fights in spurts, has been known to fade in some fights. Moreover, the savvy Team Mayweather did not agree to a catchweight for nothing.

As Andre Ward recently told RING TV, “I just don’t see anything other than Canelo landing a lucky punch that gives him a shot to win…I don’t see how Canelo can outbox…Mayweather…Canelo’s going to have some issues down the stretch. If he has trouble making weight, then that’s going to tell, and I just think when Floyd sees that, Floyd’s going to slowly but surely step on the gas…I wouldn’t be surprised if Floyd stops Canelo.”

Caveats

There is monster money to be made in a rematch should Mayweather somehow lose. Thus a disgraceful decision against Floyd is not totally out of the realm of possibility, particularly in Las Vegas where money talks and walks—no pun intended. While highly-respected Kenny Bayless will be the referee, Judge C.J. Ross is cause for concern as she will be remembered for scoring the Pacquiao-Bradley fight for Bradley, 115-113. Craig Metcalfe is less established and experienced, and this hardly seems the fight for a learning experience. Thankfully, Dave Moretti is solid.

Another caveat is if Canelo cannot reach 152, comes in overweight, pays whatever fine is posted, and Team Alvarez informs Team Mayweather that what was good for Juan Manuel Marquez should be good for Floyd. Then Alvarez becomes an even more formidable opponent, not that he should be taken lightly at the catchweight—again no pun intended.

Everything that needs to be said has been said. Indeed, if ever a fight has been overhyped, this is The One.

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  1. Ted 06:52am, 09/15/2013

    Thanks, CG

  2. Clarence George 03:10am, 09/15/2013

    Ted:  Well done on Garcia.

  3. Monte Cox 09:41pm, 09/14/2013

    Fight went pretty much as I expected. As I stated previously Mayweather held every advantage which ended with a virtual shutout for Mayweather. Not even a close fight. And CJ Ross should be banned from boxing.

  4. Monte Cox 07:16pm, 09/14/2013

    If Canelo was smart he would have come in right at 154 paid the fine and put the psychological doubt on Floyd and gave himself the best chance to win. At 152 he looked drained imho.

  5. TED THE BULL 01:01pm, 09/14/2013

    No surprise there, Krush.

  6. The Krusher 12:52pm, 09/14/2013

    The word on the street here in Lost Wages is that Canelo is a live dog

  7. John aka L.L. Cool John 09:48pm, 09/13/2013

    Although I like Mayweather by U.D.

  8. Ted the Bull 07:38pm, 09/13/2013

    Always nice to see Pitbull and John stop by for a post or two.

  9. John aka L.L. Cool John 07:29pm, 09/13/2013

    I’d put $200 to win on Canelo at 3 to 1.

  10. PitBull Petrill 06:54pm, 09/13/2013

    Ted the Bull once again has the beat!

  11. Ted The Bull 05:33pm, 09/13/2013

    Thanks for the update Kid, but I could do without the “bad feet odor” comment. Ugh!

    I agree that a 3-1 bet on Canelo is a good one and worth the gamble.

  12. kid vegas 05:30pm, 09/13/2013

    The rumors that the “fix is in” have evaporated. The smell of bad feet odor has been swept away by the Nevada winds.  All seems good. A bet on Canelo still seems like a decent play assuming you can get 3-1.

  13. Ted the Bull 05:25pm, 09/13/2013

    Yes he is B Red

  14. B Red 05:04pm, 09/13/2013

    Canelo is gonna get his ass whipped period

  15. Your Name 12:56pm, 09/13/2013

    Peace to Es

  16. Bodyshots 12:49pm, 09/13/2013

    “. . . that just means maximizing his strengths and learning to understand and mitigate his weaknesses” Aaand anticipating Mayweather’s predictable strengths of grappling and countering at his discretion. Canelo needs to gradually but inexorably gain control of that steering wheel before he attempts to step on the gas. it’s not necessarily fight-fan friendly but he needs to disregard pleasing his fans for this bout and simply focus on winning. ultimately, nothing else could make his fans happier. meanwhile, i’ll continue to pop-in from time to time and when “Whitey” Bulgeless hasn’t run to the moderator to get my comments blocked(?!) . . . i know . . . where i come from, we learn at a very young age that “tattling” isn’t an appealing quality among kids, never mind Men, and politicking is considered downright dangerous. oh well, overgrown kids will be overgrown kids . . . Peace to Don.

  17. Don from Prov 12:03pm, 09/13/2013

    Well, Canelo certainly has the mind-set, always seems well prepared—
    and he is learning with each bout: It is almost as if he’s trying to morph

    into exactly the fighter you, and others, think he’ll need to be to win the fight, but that just means maximizing his strengths and learning to understand and mitigate his weaknesses, which I hope will come right on time. 
    Good to see you on here again.

  18. Bodyshots 11:29am, 09/13/2013

    DON from PROV, Q-Vo my friend. i’m not one for over-analysis of a solid matchup. IMO, seamless and precise execution on Canelo’s part combined with age and weight-related slippage in Mayweather’s fighting ability will almost certainly result in a win for Alvarez. it’s an unlikely perfect ring-storm but not impossible. professional execution of quality (NOT volume) punches will be the key to Canelo preserving his strength and controlling the pace of the bout. otherwise, it is the opposite that many anticipate will result in a predictable Mayweather win. if Canelo wants to defy destiny, he’ll have to break the cycle by ignoring “experts” and focus on delivering the perfect balance of an inside and outside fight-game that isn’t a reaction to what Mayweather will do otherwise, which is to stifle, control, and counter for 12 long rounds. that has been Mayweather’s brilliantly-simple specialty in his forays above 147lbs. Canelo needs to respond with the equal confidence and the same lack of anxiety.

  19. Don from Prov 10:39am, 09/13/2013

    Tumbo/Bodyshots—Peace to you as well my friend.  May I say that I’ve been more than all over the place thinking about this fight—not that my thoughts = much of anything worth considering, but when I really want someone to lose (and I’d sure like to see Floyd follow Manny into the receding importance column) I end up second-guessing what I think (stress on “think”) I’ve seen.  In the end, I agree that smart (you mention patient) aggression, creating and taking advantage of opportunities are musts for Alvarez, but I do and have wondered about his stamina as well—

    Floyd has always been strong later in fights.

  20. Bodyshots 10:19am, 09/13/2013

    “…the sooner you see Canelo failing to work all 3 minutes, the higher the chances are for Mayweather to get the improbable stoppage.” ‘I really can’t say it any better except that I don’t envision a stoppage”. “Congratulations!” you didn’t. in fact, there is no evidence to suggest that the canned unrelenting pressure scenario is gonna work for Canelo. he needs to be as patient and calculating (and boring) as Floyd until he’s able to land the same shot(s) that Shane did in his bout v. Mayweather but was unable to follow-up on and THIS will be the deciding factor in a Canelo win: aggressively and effectively following-up on those momentary windows of opportunity that have emerged in several Mayweather bouts. to set-up that scenario Canelo must tag and duck, counter and withdraw, spin away from Mayweather’s clinching and grappling and not engage in macho contests of raw strength. save that for smothering Mayweather’s surges, which will compel him to expend raw strength to create punching space. the only other option is to adopt Marquez’s ambush strategy and bank on one (tops two) “Money” shots that Canelo is absolutely confident will turn the tide in his favor each and every time they land. Floyd will be looking for the right, so I suggest that Canelo make good use of uppercuts on the inside. there’s no need to engineer an entirely new fight-plan. Floyd has already seen them all. the key is for Canelo to set-up and execute quality punches, better than he’s ever executed them before. i’m waiting for the weigh-in and related reporting but will not hesitate to pick Canelo. better than playing it safe and conventional with the canned “expert” predictions. stay tuned . . .

  21. Your Name 09:01am, 09/13/2013

    Peace to Public Enemy and Alto

  22. Your Name 08:52am, 09/13/2013

    Without true experts where would a warrior wannabe fan boy like you be?.

    But hey, this way, you can disguise your REAL name and play “que es mas macho. ” Then you can slither back to watching Justin Bieber DVD’s in your foul smelling hovel in downtown LA. while you choke your withered chicken.

    Pass the puke bucket.

  23. Bodyshots 08:09am, 09/13/2013

    the fatal flaw to the scenario described by this pundit is that it describes a 147lb Mayweather typically dominating a 140lb-147lb opponent. however, that utterly-dominant version of Mayweather has never appeared above 147lbs. Floyd has never clicked on all cylinders v. 154lbrs, which explains why they lunged at the catchweight opening. anything to avoid the close call he experienced v. DLH (which neither won, IMO) or the bloody nose he experienced v. a ringworn, undersized, and Margartio-damaged Cotto. consequently, this analysis is irrelevant and simply doesn’t jibe with the reality of this particular matchup. that’s not to say that Mayweather shouldn’t still be favored but it will be for other factors not cited in this lazy, cut-and-pasted, and mailed-in analysis that is essentially a regurgitated version of what virtually every other shill and “expert” has already posted. after all, it isn’t mandatory for every pundit to blog about absolutely every matchup if they’ve got nothing original to offer . . . Peace to Don from Prov.

  24. dollarbond 06:19am, 09/13/2013

    I’m down with this prediction Bull.

  25. Giacomo Museller 10:43pm, 09/12/2013

    If Floyd has the stamina at 36 years old to dance and move all night, he will win by decision, but he will not hurt the mexican fighter. This is one tough boy. Floyd is hardly the knockout artist. UD for Floyd. If he tries to toy with Alvarez or stand toe-to-toe for even a moment, he will get knocked out and cold. Alvarez has too much power. While not as fast as Floyd, he is fast enough to deliver a left hook that will put the lights out for Floyd. He also has a mexican heart and will give it all he’s got. This is no Guerrero. Alvarez can and will fight. I think most people are writing off this very tough, but green, mexican fighter. Don’t be surprised if he KO’s Floyd. Anyone, I mean anyone can get knocked out.

  26. kid vegas 09:10pm, 09/12/2013

    I’m beginning to smell a rat

  27. Ted the Bull 03:17pm, 09/12/2013

    OH oh. I have been hearing he same stuff, Kid. As you know far better than me, anything can happen in your city. This strange rancid cheese odor, with a De La Hoya scent to it, has been staring to permeate among some pretty sharp boxing observers. I don’t believe in this kind of thing myself, but there is a ever-so-faint buzz out there that kind of adds some intrigue to this over-hyped and intrigue less engagement.

    I don’t buy onto the hype and I don’t buy into “the fix is in.”

  28. kid vegas 03:10pm, 09/12/2013

    Here in Las Vegas there are rumors that something smells less than roses about this fight. People are saying that the De La Hoya rehab thing is an excuse for him to be away when the smell of fish turns to shit hitting the fan as in maybe a bad decision coming down. It has become a side story of sorts, but I am not a conspiracy type so I don’t give it much credibility.

  29. Ted the Bull 02:52pm, 09/12/2013

    Peter has the beat

  30. Peter Silkov 01:07pm, 09/12/2013

    I’m going for Garcia too… just a feeling I’ve got.  He always seems to figure a way out to win, and I think his own power is a little underrated.  Angel seems to be an arse but there’s no denying that hes done a good job developing his son up till now.

  31. Ted 11:55am, 09/12/2013

    I also detest Angel. He is noxious and toxic.

  32. Ted 11:54am, 09/12/2013

    Matthysse has a tendency to lunge in leaving himself open for a short hook. Problem is Garcia’s hooks are not short. Solution, shorten up on the hook, wait for the right time, and then let it go. Kaboom!!!! The legend of Matthysse will end and the legend of Ted the Bull will be enhanced.

  33. Clarence George 10:28am, 09/12/2013

    I have a healthy respect for Garcia (the son, not the father, whom I detest).  In fact, I don’t think anyone other than Matthysse can beat him, though I’d love to see him against Provodnikov.

    Garcia’s a marginally better boxer and a pretty good hitter, but Matthysse is surprisingly underrated as a boxer and his punching power is almost preternatural—with the possible exception of Golovkin, he’s the hardest pound-for-pound hitter in the world today.

    The Argentine by fifth-round KO, which will no doubt result in Angel having an apoplectic fit…not that we’ll be able to tell the difference.

  34. Don from Prov 10:26am, 09/12/2013

    the only way he will surprise lucas is by how hard he falls down—
    bet that up!

  35. Don from Prov 10:24am, 09/12/2013

    kettles and pots—


    wtf!!!!!!!!!!

  36. Ted 10:08am, 09/12/2013

    But now I’m going to start a bit of an argument as I think Garcia will surprise the Argentine. Angel might well kick the guy while he is down.

    Matthysse lunges in and is open for a short left hook, but it must be SHORT.

  37. Ted 10:06am, 09/12/2013

    Prov, if ever there was a time for the kettle to call the pot black, that was it!!!!!! LMFAO!

  38. Tex Hassler 09:47am, 09/12/2013

    I agree with Mike Silver. I would like to see Canelo win but at this stage of his career I do not see this happening. If he could work and throw lots of punches like Pacquiao he would win but he is not Pacuqiao. I do not think he can apply enough pressure to move Floyd out of his game plan.

  39. Don from Prov 09:44am, 09/12/2013

    Be a man
    Put away petty arguments

  40. Ted 09:40am, 09/12/2013

    Naw, just Tumbo hater

  41. Don from Prov 09:36am, 09/12/2013

    Mexican hater
    Redhead hater


    Maybe Floyd will get old: Maybe his hands will get old—
    He himself is, in mind, old as in “I’ve had enough of both Floyd and Manny”

  42. Monte Cox 09:31am, 09/12/2013

    @Peter Silkov

    How can Floyd have the weight advantage he is forcing Alavarez to weigh in at 152. Alvarez is at the disadvantage by not being able to come in at his natural weight and the division limit.

    I dont think age is as big of a deal nowadays as it was years ago. Floyd hasn’t taken a lot of punishment and at 36 Hopkins beat Trinidad. If anything the experience factor due to age favors Mayweather.

  43. Mike Casey 08:42am, 09/12/2013

    Agree with the way you see it, Ted. I just see Alvarez getting steadily picked apart. Floyd might not need the judges if he’s in the mood to turn it on.

  44. Ted 08:29am, 09/12/2013

    Err both Dan’s

  45. Ted 08:01am, 09/12/2013

    Dan has the beat

  46. Ted 06:43am, 09/12/2013

    Risk reward favors Canelo. That should reduce some pressure but not all that much.

  47. Djata 05:59am, 09/12/2013

    Mayweather makes noises when he punches…That means that he’s not concentrating…It also means that he makes himself dry and tired….Finally, he “holds” inside, instead of fighting….To me, he’s really over-rated, compared to fighters of the Seventies.

  48. Peter Silkov 05:31am, 09/12/2013

    Mayweather has the skills advantage for sure, but to say this is a gimme for Floyd is wrong imo… especially in Las Vegas.

  49. Peter Silkov 05:30am, 09/12/2013

    All the advantages?... what about giving away about 15 pounds by fight night, not to mention 13 years in age?.....

  50. Monte Cox 04:28am, 09/12/2013

    Mayweather will win and I won’t think any better of him for it. I expect him to win and I don’t think 23 year old Canelo is ready for this challenge. Mayweather has all the experience and the matchup favors him. Once again Floyd goes into a fight where he holds all the advantages.

  51. Peter Silkov 01:03am, 09/12/2013

    Good analysis of the fight Ted.  I see this as a fight which Floyd should win, but at the same time I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Canelo come out of there with a controversial split decision win… which in the end wouldn’t be that controversial, as there are many in boxing who want Saul to be crowned the new ‘king’.  This fight makes me think a lot about Pernell Whitakers fights against Julio Cesar Chavez and Oscar De La Hoya!.  How many people grumble about those decisions today?...

  52. Mike Silver 07:31pm, 09/11/2013

    The only factor here is Mayweather’s age. Three years ago this fight is a cakewalk for Floyd—still could be. It is Floyd’s fight to lose. He has far too much experience and natural talent for Canelo. At 36 Floyd is not the whippet of old—but still has enough to handle Canelo.

  53. Dan Cuoco 07:26pm, 09/11/2013

    Ted, I agree with you 100%. You nailed this perfectley!

  54. John aka L.L. Cool John 06:52pm, 09/11/2013

    FYI: Vegas odds put Mayweather at -260 to win. As a comparison, Mayweather was a -800 to win against Cotto.

  55. John aka L.L. Cool John 06:39pm, 09/11/2013

    Nice breakdown, Ted.

    In my opinion, it’s Mayweather by UD. Then again, stranger things have happened in boxing.

  56. Ted 06:29pm, 09/11/2013

    Irish, that’s not bad thinking, but the Kid and Dan may have the beat.

  57. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo aka Gimpel 06:19pm, 09/11/2013

    Ted Sares-I would say that is a pretty darn savvy call on your part….here’s how a very unsavvy fanatic here at Boxing.Com sees it…Canelo beats Mayweather’s last six opponents probably by stoppage with Marquez and Guerrero making it to the final bell…maybe…..so I hope we can agree that he belongs in the ring with Floyd. Now I’m going to repeat what I offered in a previous post….if and it’s a big if….Canelo can avoid most of the right hand potshots that put an exclamation point on so many of the rounds that Floyd wins…... thereby making the judges’ jobs just a teeny bit more difficult…. things could get very interesting if they go to the cards.

  58. Dan Adams 06:12pm, 09/11/2013

    I think Floyd wins this one easy.  There’s a reason Mayweather signed so quickly…he’s got Canelo figured out already.  Still, Canelo IS talented and could surprise; but I don’t believe so.

  59. kid vegas 06:02pm, 09/11/2013

    I AGREE WITH YOUR ANALYSIS, AND I ALSO THINK THIS FIGHT HAS BEEN WAY OVER HYPED. I’M SICK OF IT.

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