Mayweather-Ortiz: UNSTABLE

By "Old Yank" Schneider on September 13, 2011
Mayweather-Ortiz: UNSTABLE
Mental challenges can take the mustard out of anyone's sandwich (Robert Ecksel)

When is the right time to stray from tangibles and take a shot on intangibles? Mayweather is unstable; unpredictable…

Quick…name three professional fighters who are paragons of stability. Of course you can. But the names don’t exactly roll out of your gray-matter Rolodex without fumbling a bit. And once you think you’ve got a name nailed, you do a quick search through current headlines and buried stories, and through pre-fight and in-the-ring antics and you find yourself discarding one name after another. The pro fighters of today who are paragons of stability work hard at it; very hard. They’ve likely overcome some issues that would leave any man a bit psyche-shaken. In spite of the hard work some fighters put in, some simply have a past (and present) that leaves a fan’s head spinning.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Victor Ortiz are no paragons of stability and this very instability will play a hand in their upcoming bout; and the unstable hands these two fighters have been dealt (or dealt for themselves) will work both for and against them.

Unstable: lacking stability; disposed to temperamental, emotional or psychological variability; (and in the sciences) having a very short lifetime; spontaneous decomposing or decay; having a tendency to self-oscillate.

Could a fan ask for a more rich word definition to play with when contemplating the Mayweather/Ortiz bout? 

Lacking stability: Can someone tell me how many times a member of the Mayweather clan has been arrested? Floyd Mayweather Jr. has a rap sheet that dates back more than a decade and it has very few gaps in it ever since. Ortiz was abandoned by his mother when he was seven. He was severely beaten by an alcoholic father who would abandon him five years later. Ortiz turned to dealing drugs. 

Stability requires a solid foundation; the foundational underpinnings of these two fighters is about as unstable a collection of abuse and bad behavior as we ever see in any young man—never mind what we see in the hyper-unstable world of boxing.

When I say “spontaneous decay” is it possible to keep your mind off how quickly Ortiz fell apart in his bout against Marcos Maidana in 2009? Talk about “self-oscillate? Whew! When I say “temperamental, emotional or psychological variability,” just try to not think about Mayweather’s YouTube outburst involving language about a “yellow monkey.” To suggest that these two fighters are unstable is akin to suggesting Donald Trump has some cash. Well duh!

But what if you could take an analysis of this instability and use it to predict the outcome of this bout? Would that be useful? You bet it would!

Where in their respective cycles of “unstable” are these two fighters? I would argue that Victor Ortiz is in a place where he has come a long, long way in placing his instability behind him whereas Floyd Mayweather Jr. is in a fecal storm of instability that might just catch up to him in this bout—approaching a cycle peak.

I’m personally convinced that Mayweather just does not want to fight anymore. In his post-fight news conference following the Baldomir bout in 2006, he announced that he was going to quit boxing. Of course six months later he fought De La Hoya in a mega bout where he won a split decision and enough pocket change to say whatever the hell he wanted to say. So he did say whatever the hell he wanted to say, and what he wanted to say was, “I’m gone. I’m through with the sport. You’ll see; I’m through man.” And then on the Larry King show in March of 2008 Mayweather once again showed his hand and it was clear that he wanted to fold it. Mayweather was dragged into the sport of boxing kicking and screaming by a father and uncle who are perhaps the only two men in the Mayweather clan more unstable than Floyd Jr. They owned the deck of cards and they dealt Floyd Jr. his hand for years. And now, in spite of his amazing gift (in part dealt to him by an unstable family), Floyd Mayweather Jr. simply does not want to fight anymore. He deals from his own deck now and it is well past beginning to look like he’s walking away from the gaming table.

There are no fewer than five open legal issues Floyd Mayweather Jr. is facing. They range from claims of assault against his ex-girlfriend Josie Harris to a defamation suit filed by Manny Pacquiao. None of the charges are remotely in the category of jaywalking. Indeed it takes an unstable man to compartmentalize these issues into something that has no effect on performance. And perhaps Mayweather is unstable enough to put these serious, potentially life-altering charges out of his head. However, we’ve seen how these issues can mount up in the mind of a fighter and alter the outcome of what was thought to be an easy prediction. If you doubt this observation, please review what was mounting in the life of Mike Tyson before he met Buster Douglas one fateful night in Japan. Legal issues take their toll. And women issues are an historic toll-taker in boxing.

On top of wanting out and adding stress to his legal issues, Mayweather is at it again with his father—and it feels mean-spirited—a soul snatching anger. Virtually nothing seems to be going smoothly in Floyd’s life. His is a cycle of instability that is on the rise. And at age 34 this has got to be wearing on him. Mental challenges can take the mustard out of anyone’s sandwich. It is time to question if Mayweather’s confidence (and that of so many expert prognosticators) is now nothing more than baloney. I believe Mayweather has something he needs to prove; he needs to prove that where others have faded under mounting instability, he will be different; he will rise above it.

“Rising above it” requires a level of maturity and stability that Mayweather is flashing signs of no longer possessing; if he ever did. Natural, physical gifts have an eerie way of crumbling under mounting instability. A story about a straw and a camel’s back comes to mind.

Here is a tip: The Mayweather clan has fought for generations fearing southpaws. In spite of their current claims to the contrary, past interviews are replete with quotes from generations of Mayweathers that let the cat out of the bag—Mayweather’s don’t like fighting southpaws. Now take a man who wants to quit, add a volatile cocktail of legal and woman troubles and stir it up with a southpaw named Victor Ortiz and we just might have the ingredients for a massive upset.

Victor Ortiz has had his share of instability in his life as well. He too once concluded that boxing was not the sport for him. In mid-2009, after coming off two impressive wins in significant step-up bouts against Jeffrey Resto and the once well-regarded Mike Arnaoutis, Victor Ortiz quit after being out-manned by the very tough Marcos Maidana. And by everyone’s observation “out-manned” was exactly the correct description of what went down—Maidana made a boy out of Ortiz and it had every appearance that Ortiz would rather quit boxing than confront the possibility of facing another man in the ring. 

But that was more than two years ago.

In a sport of “what have you done for me lately,” Ortiz has done a lot lately. Ortiz took six months to try to screw his head back on straight following the Maidana bout. He was given some very good experience with once well-respected veterans in three of his next four bouts—facing Antonio Diaz, Nate Campbell and Vivian Harris (a bout against a tester of new skills was arranged in the middle of these bouts against the durable Hector Alatorre—who Ortiz managed to stop in the final round). In December of last year Ortiz was thrown back into the very serious side of “in the mix” with a tough majority decision win against Lamont Peterson—a bout that pitted two fighters in need of showing that they wanted back in real bad.

On April 16th of this year, Victor Ortiz seemed to bury any skeletons of instability deep in his closet with a fight-of-the-year candidate bout against Andre Berto. Ortiz finally had a major title belt that he’d worked very, very hard to win. More importantly, he indicated that whatever was unstable in his past had been overcome.

One can easily argue that Ortiz has exited his cycle of instability and is approaching this bout against Mayweather with a hard-earned maturity that he deserves credit for acquiring.

But let’s not make more of intangibles than we should. Or should we make the most of them?

By virtually every tangible measure, Floyd Mayweather Jr. wins this bout with relative ease; just as Mike Tyson should have won his bout against Buster Douglas with relative ease.

When is the right time to stray from tangibles and take a shot on intangibles? Mayweather is unstable; unpredictable. When betting opened, there are some odds-makers out there that had Mayweather as the prohibitive favorite—some odds makers were as wide as 10:1. They have settled down to 5:1 to 6:1. Damn, I will predict that Mayweather wins. The upset possibility might seem remote when comparing skills. The upset possibility however seems irresistible when comparing how unstable one fighter is and how that instability factor is reaching a cycle peak as we approach the opening bell.

Call me crazy; even unstable! But I cannot resist 6:1 odds that a very unstable Floyd Mayweather Jr. is about to meet his Buster Douglas (I jumped on wider odds two weeks ago). Expect a Mayweather win but take a shot at some big money on long odds.

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  1. "Old Yank" Schneider 11:04am, 09/18/2011

    es—Imagine this conversation: “Victor, we need you to make a splash—not that kind—the dive in the pool kind.  If you do, in exchange we will guarantee you the winner of Mayweather/Pacquiao at a minimum of $XX million.”

  2. es 12:27am, 09/18/2011

    “One must wonder what instructions Ortiz is operating under” - Ron, i’m wondering if you called something here that no-one else did.

  3. "Old Yank" Schneider 03:37pm, 09/17/2011

    Just close out my open leg at -585 on Mayweather!  I’ll take it!

  4. "Old Yank" Schneider 03:25pm, 09/17/2011

    es—Although anything can and does happen in boxing… will Golden Boy toss out the biggest grossing bout in boxing history (Mayweather/Pacquiao), over a Mayweather loss.  One must wonder what instructions Ortiz is operating under.

  5. es 11:22am, 09/17/2011

    If Ortiz can impose himself on Floyd early enough to worry him with smart aggression, then this may turn out to be one hell of a fight. If Floyd is on the slide, and it can happen over night, Ortiz can win this one.

  6. "Old Yank" Schneider 07:08pm, 09/16/2011

    es—It is an EASY fight in my INTELLECT as well.  But it is STILL wrenching my gut!

  7. es 01:57pm, 09/16/2011

    The book never grabs me Ron. But, many say Ortiz is a real live one but this dog thinks Floyd fights smarter now. It’s an easy fight IMO. Very.

  8. "Old Yank" Schneider 01:14pm, 09/16/2011

    es—You are probably right.  The “book” is on your side too.

  9. es 11:48am, 09/16/2011

    Floyd still has too much calibre for a fighter like Ortiz. Lest not forget Floyd has a very good chin. Floyd stops Ortiz inside of 10. Ref stops fight.

  10. "Old Yank" Schneider 04:00pm, 09/15/2011

    My point is that by jumping out early on wide odds, it opens a door for an intelligent hedge when things narrow.  Wagering dogs can be a very profitable business if you do it right and play the hedge in order to limit your downside.  Again, if VERY LUCKY (like the STUPID odds someone gave me early on Ortiz), I can actually do more than hedge this dog—I can cover him entirely and end up with a no-lose combo (a hedge on May with a long shot on Ortiz where the math can’t lose).

  11. "Old Yank" Schneider 03:07pm, 09/15/2011

    The Thresher—Hopefully I’ve made a little sense of this.  Again, one MUST jump out VERY early when they see odds that don’t make sense on a dog they like.  Odds almost always NARROW when a LIVE DOG or significant intangibles become apparent.  After things have narrowed, jump on the best favorite odds you can.  This will yield the best hedge wager and can on rare, but NOT IMPOSSIBLE occasions, hand you a no-lose opportunity.

  12. "Old Yank" Schneider 02:53pm, 09/15/2011

    At -650 on Mayweather (which I believe I can get today), I need to do 10, $650 dollar bets to win $1,000 over my wager—a $6,500 wager.  With this wager, if Ortiz wins on my 12:1, I pick up $12,000 after laying out $6,500 on Mayweather and $1,000 on Ortiz.  $7,500 out and $12,000 in would give me $4,500 profit should Ortiz win.  However, should Mayweather win, I pick up $1,000 on my Mayweather bet but it is 100% off-set by my $1,000 on Ortiz—a break-even situation.  So I WANT Mayweather at better than -650 (preferrably at -500) and I will then place $6,000 on Mayweather.  This would give me a $1,200 pick up should Mayweather win, off-set by the $1,000 on Ortiz, for a paltry $200 profit.

  13. "Old Yank" Schneider 02:39pm, 09/15/2011

    At -500 on Mayweather, I win $100 for each $500 bet.  How many $500 bets do I need to make on Mayweather to cover the $1,000 I placed on Ortiz?  I need to do 10, $500 bets on Mayweather to cover the $1,000 I will lose on Ortiz (should Mayweather win), just to break even.  So at -500 on Mayweather I need to wager MORE than $5,000 (10 x $500) in order to do better than break even should Mayweather WIN.

  14. "Old Yank" Schneider 02:34pm, 09/15/2011

    The Thresher - In your example, what if Ortiz loses?  You cannot do equal dollar bets.  You must do a ratio bet.

  15. The Thresher 02:30pm, 09/15/2011

    If you give 6-5 on a 1,000 on May, you still win 12,000-1,000 = 11,000 according to my calculations.

  16. The Thresher 01:58pm, 09/15/2011

    I just got 12-1 against Ortiz and then gave 1,000 on 6-5 on May. I can’t lose, right? Just asking. No malice intended..

  17. "Old Yank" Schneider 11:43am, 09/15/2011

    To be fair and REAL…I still don’t have my hedge leg down yet!  The best I can get right now is around -650 on Mayweather.  Although I can ratio this out and still win (since my $1,000, 12:1 leg is already down), I need to put a lot more on Mayweather than I want to right now (in the neighborhood of $10,000).  If -500 on Mayweather is never reached before the windows close, I’ll take the best I can get (hopefully something below -600).  I still HOPE to get something close to -500.

  18. "Old Yank" Schneider 09:28am, 09/15/2011

    The Thresher—We get wind of likely bouts before contracts are signed and before betting windows open.  We typically have early feels for what the outcome will be.  There is no way guys like us should ever be caught napping.  More often than not, dog bets open up wide and then quickly come down to reality.  If you are inclined to see a dog as a live-dog or wish to take advantage of some intangible that you doubt everyone is in line with, you MUST place your wager on the dog EARLY before the odds narrow!  As odds then quickly narrow, a hedge bet can be made later—usually this does nothing more than reduce the size of your exposure to a LOSS and on rare (but not UBER-RARE) occasions, you can create a no-lose combo.  The trick is not waiting to see where things will settle—you MUST grab the dog odds early BEFORE things narrow.  One then prays that the second leg (hedge leg) can be placed in a narrower environment, and with dramatically narrowed odds it can actually do more than reduce exposure to a loss; it can (on rare occasions) create a no-lose combo.  It is exactly things like this (and a reasonable track record picking favorites and dogs) that led you years ago to PRINT that you thought me a “savvy handicapper”.

  19. "Old Yank" Schneider 09:03am, 09/15/2011

    Hmmm.  PEACE!

  20. The Thresher 09:03am, 09/15/2011

    To get a no lose bet, you need a perfect storm of circumstances. You need to get long odds on the dog and decent odds on the favorite. It is extremly difficult. That’s all that I am saying here. Yes, it’s possible but it requires the stars to be in alignment.

  21. The Thresher 08:56am, 09/15/2011

    Hmmm.

  22. "Old Yank" Schneider 08:10am, 09/15/2011

    pugknows—What are the best odds you’ve seen picking Mayweather and when?  If you timed these perfectly (the most favorable odds for you since the windows opened—a rare but FAR FROM IMPOSSIBLE thing to do), what ratio combo would you need to do in order to be in a NO-LOSE position?

  23. "Old Yank" Schneider 07:59am, 09/15/2011

    pugknows - What is the highest odds you saw picking Ortiz and when?

  24. "Old Yank" Schneider 07:58am, 09/15/2011

    The Thresher—What’s your problem today?  Something stuck sideways that a good high-colonic can’t even fix.  Weeks ago, the odds I obtained seemed stupid to me when I took them (stupid for them, GREAT for me).  I COUNTED on them narrowing as we approached the fight (as they typically do).  These odds opened in the neighborhood of 8:1 to 10:1.  For a flash 12:1 was available in local markets (the beauty of a global web).  For CRAPS SAKE, the ENTIRE UK had David Haye as the betting FAVORITE against Klitschko.  Don’t tell me these things don’t happen.  I f-in doubt you’ve placed a boxing wager in the last 10 years!  Here is how it came down: 8:1 gave way to 10:1 and very briefly opened at 12:1 in limited markets.  Quickly it began to narrow—sharply back down to 8:1 and then 7:1 and then 6:1 and finally settling now around 4.6:1.  I COUNTED on a combo becoming available down the road as odds narrowed.  For craps sake Ted, I can quote you in YOUR OWN BOOK crediting me as being a savvy handicapper.  WHAT THE F IS YOUR PROBLEM TODAY!???

  25. pugknows 07:04am, 09/15/2011

    I agree with the Thresher. This kind of bet is a one in a million. Just doesn’t seem very likely

  26. The Thresher 06:25am, 09/15/2011

    Hmmm.

  27. Robert Ecksel 05:23am, 09/15/2011

    The last person I want is to be mistaken for is Russell Mora, but I can confirm that Old Yank sent in his original UNSTABLE a few weeks ago with 12:1 odds in the text, and twice revised the piece as the odds leveled out.

  28. The Thresher 04:49am, 09/15/2011

    Sorry pal, but I don’t buy it. And using VW as a source futher reflects the contrived nature of your bet. Piece of advice (unsolicited). If you plan to write boxing articles, don’t write them about how smart you think you are with “can’t lose” bets. Stick to boxing.

  29. "Old Yank" Schneider 03:16am, 09/15/2011

    The Thresher—If you do a little homework you will learn that I am not the only one to take advantage of the early 12:1.  When I first submitted this article it spoke of the 12:1 odds.  However, by the time we neared publication the odds had narrowed so much that I sent Robert an edit reflecting the narrower odds.  Vivek Wallace has a piece up with one of his “mail bags” where a fan questions Vivek about the early 12:1 odds.  And there are other places where you can LEARN that in fact, for a very brief time 12:1 was available.  So, what sauce would you like your pig wings with—mild, hot or wow!

  30. The Thresher 05:59pm, 09/14/2011

    12-1 !!! Right, and pigs fly.

  31. sthomas 04:52pm, 09/14/2011

    Old Yank, if Tiger Woods had not melted down the way he did, I would have no doubts that Mayweather will not crack.  But Woods was as focused as any athlete, right up there with the Floyds, Jordans, Bill Russells, and it got him

    Your betting method appears bullet proof on this one. Again, thought provoking article, I wish you lots of good hits on it.

  32. "Old Yank" Schneider 03:26pm, 09/14/2011

    sthomas—Thanx man!  Great to hear from you.  All things “skills” point to Ortiz being schooled.  As you might expect, I like your comments about Tiger Woods mentally breaking down and we watched skills get tossed out the window.  It can and does happen on the big stage to the best of the best.  Again, I predict a Mayweather win, but have covered my hunch with cash.

  33. sthomas 02:07pm, 09/14/2011

    Nice work Old Yank.  Mayweather is one of the most focused sports individuals I have ever witnessed when it comes time to performing his task.  I said the same thing about Tiger Woods though and he sure melted down.  I predict Mayweather will put all his problems in a box and go about business as usual, making it look pretty easy, but not as easy as his last 2.

  34. "Old Yank" Schneider 11:51am, 09/14/2011

    Ortiz needs to do the Marciano—hit whatever is available to hit and do it hard.  Ortiz needs to throw right hooks at Mayweather’s rolled-in left shoulder all night long.  He needs to catch ball-joint and rotator cuff to the back-side of Mayweather’s shoulder.  He needs to do so with the intent of tearing Mayweather’s shoulder out of joint.  He needs to throw his left at the center of Floyd’s chest and do so with the intent of causing Floyd to do his shoulder roll so the back of Floyd’s left shoulder opens up to be banged a la Marciano hot-what-you-can-hit mentality.  Ortiz needs to fight as if he has nothing to lose because he has nothing to lose as long as he fights hard.  Losing to Mayweather in a decent showing (i.e. look better than Hatton or Mosley), Ortiz can only increase his stock in the game win or lose.

  35. "Old Yank" Schneider 11:41am, 09/14/2011

    The Thresher—I’m already down on Ortiz—I got 12:1 weeks ago.  My open leg is the Mayweather side.  Indeed someone was “looney” with 12:1 at the time, but it was there and I took it quickly.  Sometimes you just get lucky!

  36. The Thresher 11:12am, 09/14/2011

    “at my early 12:1),” Are you loony?

  37. Tex Hassler 10:01am, 09/14/2011

    On paper I guess Mayweather would figure to be an easy winner. However the fight will take place in the ring and not on paper. Mayweather does seem to have lost his focus for some reason and probably views Ortiz as an easy opponent. Ortiz seeems to be moving to his peak and Floyd seems headed downhill. Ortiz may well, by his aggressivenes and desire to win coupled with a willingness to risk all in order to win, upset Mayweather.

  38. "Old Yank" Schneider 09:59am, 09/14/2011

    SORRY; BAD MATH—I expect my $6,000 wager on Mayweather to return $7,200.  After deducting the total $7,000 skin in the game ($6k on Mayweather at 1:5 and $1k on Ortiz at my early 12:1), I pick up a paltry $200 bucks for my effort.  Should the upset happen, my $1,000 on Ortiz returns $12,000.  So should Mayweather win, I’m above break-even.  Should Ortiz pull off the upset, I pick up $12,000 on the $7,000 of skin I’ve got in the game—a $5,000 pick up.  Assuming I can get my 1:5 on Mayweather, I can’t lose.

  39. "Old Yank" Schneider 09:17am, 09/14/2011

    GOOD ADVICE!  But I like the alliteration of a Saturday night Stoli better.

  40. The Thresher 09:11am, 09/14/2011

    Try some Rolaids if J & J is still making them.

  41. "Old Yank" Schneider 07:08am, 09/14/2011

    The Thresher—Call it “market timing”.

  42. "Old Yank" Schneider 07:06am, 09/14/2011

    The Thresher—Your analysis is not only spot on, but it is the reason why the odds opened up at 10:1 and remain wide.  Yours are the obviously appropriate talking points – I’m on board.  Your analysis is why I’m PREDICTING Mayweather wins.  It is highly likely to unfold exactly as you describe.  Ask Roberto Duran (see: Duran/Barkely) about how fights are obviously supposed to unfold.  Ask Buster Douglass how fights are obviously supposed to unfold.  I wonder what Fritzie Zivic or Randy Turpin would say about how obvious it was that Henry Armstrong and Sugar Ray Robinson should win.  The Thresher, I’ve got NOTHIN’ HERE but the same dame uneasy stomach I had leading up to Tyson/Douglass.  I’ve done my best to describe the source of my upset stomach.  I placed my bet early and found a stunning 12:1 to take advantage of picking Ortiz.  When I find my bet on Mayweather, I expect my grand on him to return a paltry $1,200 – HOWEVER, it more than pays for my grand on Ortiz that has the potential to return $12,000.  I expect to be in a no-lose wager should I find the tight odds on Mayweather that I expect to find before Saturday (hell, ANY bet on Mayweather will cover my smart, early 12:1 on Ortiz).  I’m focused less on the expected outcome than I am on smart handicapping with well-timed wagers.

  43. The Thresher 05:24am, 09/14/2011

    Mayweather vs. Ortiz: Hype vs. Reality

    The Hype:

    An extremely hungry and vicious “Vicious’ Victor Ortiz (29-2-2) is young, explosive and heavy handed. He has improved with each outing and has made fans forget about the Maidana debacle. As in the Berto brawl, he will perpetrate his unique brand of shock and awe on Floyd Mayweather Jr. early and if Little Floyd (41-0) is rusty, Victor will hurt him and then exploit Floyd’s suddenly faded reflexes caused in part by 1) lack of ring activity and 2) by external legal issues. It’s within the realm of possibility that Floyd grows old overnight in the manner of Kostya Tszyu and Darius Dariusz Michalczewski. It can happen.

    The reality

    Arguably, Floyd is the best or second best P4P fighter in the world. Ortiz does not belong anywhere near the top ten. Floyd IS the guy who schooled Juan Manuel Marquez over 12 dominant rounds. Ortiz IS the guy who drew with Lamont Peterson just two fights ago.

    Floyd is not is not Andre Berto whose style provided Ortiz with the perfect partner with whom to display his highly combustible style of fighting. That kind of fight is not Floyd’s and he is to savvy to be lured into something he doesn’t like.

    Thus, like assessing a mutual fund, one needs to look at past performance to judge the future. In this regard, Mayweather always shows up with his cylinders finely tuned and there is no reason to believe that won’t be the case on September 17. He also always shows up with his full arsenal of superb skills the likes of which Vicious Victor can only dream about.

    The Outcome

    While Ortiz clearly has power and can be extremely dangerous early, especially if Floyd should evidence ring rust, I don’t see that as likely. It will take more than Victor Ortiz to break Floyd’s undefeated mark.

    My expectation is that after an explosive start, Ortiz will be contained within the tight cocoon of Floyd Mayweather Junior’s well-designed fight plan. Little Floyd will neutralize the explosive Ortiz after round 4 and then begin to find his rhythm in the mid rounds. Mayweather should finish the fight in cruise control using sharp counters, punishing and unanswered leads to Victor’s face (ala the Ricky Hatton fight), and an impenetrable defense unlike any Victor has seen.

    I predict a dominant unanimous decision for Mayweather as he moves to 42-0.

  44. The Thresher 05:21am, 09/14/2011

    Tyson did NOT train. Mayweather has trained. Tyson lost focus before the fight. Mayweather always is at home while in the ring. It is his sanctuary.

    If anything, I think Ortiz is the guy who is caught up in the drama and has lost focus. I see this fight almost as a mismatch. Ortiz has talked way too much. He will be punished for his trangressions.

  45. "Old Yank" Schneider 05:12am, 09/14/2011

    Tyson was characterized by being UNCHARACTERISTICALLY calm and quite before the Douglas bout.  Mayweather is being FAR TOO POLITE in public for my comfort.

  46. "Old Yank" Schneider 05:09am, 09/14/2011

    The Thresher—Your comments worked perfectly in a pre-Douglas/Tyson environment as well.  As you recall, I wagered on Tyson in EVERY heavyweight bout of his from his first, until THE exception.  For reasons I will simply call a gut feeling about how UNSTABLE Tyson’s life had become (especially his Givens issues—mom and wife), I sat out the Tyson/Douglas bout.  I did NOT bet on Douglas—and in hindsight, I should have followed my gut.  You are 100% CORRECT!  I have NO ARGUMENT with your comments.  I just don’t know when issues become a Tyson/Douglass moment and this situation looks about as unstable as any I’ve seen in recent memory.

  47. The Thresher 04:54am, 09/14/2011

    Use compartmentalizing. It helps with Mayweather.

    The guy you see on the stool waiting for the bell to ring with his eyes focused like a laser and with total knowledge of what’s happening in the ring and with a Ring IQ enabling him to assess the situation and to set incredible traps and exploit his opponent’s weaknesses is totally different from the imbecile who throws money around and abuses gate keepers at his home and swears at his old man and who acts like he has an IQ of 47

    And therein lies the reason why ypou should never bet against him.
    .

  48. "Old Yank" Schneider 03:14am, 09/14/2011

    Iron Beach—You’ve nailed the game plan that Ortiz must stick to in order to win.  My “concern” for Mayweather is not so much about having an answer for Ortiz’s game plan as it is being in a “Tyson state of mind” (a la pre-Douglas fight).  How much can any human take in outside pressure before it effects their athletic performance?  Every human has a tipping point.

  49. Iron Beach 02:44am, 09/14/2011

    Pretty deep piece Yank, I’ll just say that VO should establish himself in rd.1 and stay in Floyds face…yeah I know ‘lil Floyd will rely on counterpunching…but if you are first you have a chance to break his inactive body down without letting him dictate the terms of the bout. IMPOSE your WILL on him…make HIM uncomfortable, don’t let him fight his fight. Easier said than done…YES. Impossible…NO. Victor can win this fight.  Punish Floyds body.

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