Mayweather vs. Cotto Predictions

By Boxing News on May 5, 2012
Mayweather vs. Cotto Predictions
Who will be declared the winner when it's over? This is how the writers see it.

When the opening bells rings, all the pre-fight hoopla will be reduced to two exemplary fighters stripped to the waist putting it all on the line versus the other…

Floyd “Money” Mayweather and Miguel Cotto, the Pride of Puerto Rico, get it on tonight in the big Cinco de Mayo showdown at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Their respective skills and temperaments have been examined at length and praised and/or damned to the high heavens. But when the opening bells rings, all the pre-fight hoopla will be reduced to two exemplary fighters stripped to the waist putting it all on the line versus the other. Mayweather is the betting favourite by virtue of his unbeaten record. But Cotto is no pushover—far from it. Who will be declared the winner when all said and done? This is how the writers at see it.

Adam Berlin: “It’s never easy betting against the man you’re rooting for, but for this one my money’s on Money May. In February, when the two junior middleweights visited Harlem’s Apollo Theater, I got to see both men up close. Looks alone don’t tell the story about fights, but the truth is, Mayweather at 35 looked young and clear-eyed, glistening with good health, while Cotto at 31 looked like what he is, a brave pugilist with battle scars and eyes that showed aged wisdom. Forget the four years, Mayweather will be the younger, quicker fighter on Saturday night. Cotto may have exacted revenge against Margarito, but the truth is, before the fight was literally cut short, Margarito was starting to impose his will on Miguel. Mayweather will impose his will from round one, he’ll stun Cotto as the fight goes deep and, while I hate to say it, when the final bell tolls, if the fight gets that far, Pretty Boy Floyd will still look pretty and he’ll still be undefeated.”

Cheekay Brandon: “The fight will be close; as much as I appreciate Mayweather for putting his integrity front and center by fighting at 154 lbs, it is a big mistake for him, as I don’t believe that he will carry the weight in 2012 nearly as well as he did in 2007 (versus Oscar De La Hoya). The extra weight will slow Mayweather down and turn him further into a one-punch-at-a-time potshotter. The problem with this is that Cotto can deal with potshotters. Cotto’s had problems against high volume pressure punchers, which a blown-up Floyd Mayweather certainly is not. I expect Cotto to start very fast, throwing and landing early and often, winning 2 of the first 3 rounds and probably 4 of the first 6. I expect Floyd to adjust beautifully in the second half of the fight (as only he can), winning 5 of 6, to take a 7 rounds to 5 decision via precision punching and evasion. X-factors and unknowns like the referee and judges will make a difference; let’s just cross our fingers and hope that the judges don’t ruin the fight with a bogus decision either way.”

Teron Briggs: “I pick Mayweather to win in a boring unanimous decision with no knockdowns in a fight sort on suspense and action. Hope I’m wrong.”

Mike Casey: “This is an intriguing fight and not just because of the contrasting styles and personalities of the combatants. For this writer, it is a classic case of the head needing to overrule the heart. That is why I must plump for the peacock over the hawk. Several questions need to be answered. Did Cotto produce his last great performance against Margarito? Not necessarily. Can Miguel rise to those heights again? Yes he can in terms of spirit and determination, but he will still fall short. Floyd has passed the apex of his career, but not dramatically so. Will his frequent bouts of inactivity catch up with him all at once in the way that similar career interruptions caught up with Ray Leonard? Yes, but not this Saturday. I think Cotto will fight heroically, land some hurtful punches and certainly test Mayweather’s mettle. But Floyd will systematically pick him off before securing a punishing TKO win around the 10th round by forcing the referee’s intervention.”

Mutaurwa Mapondera: “I’m a shameless Miguel Cotto fan; I think he’s an exciting fighter, who fights in a very honest manner that always results in exciting fights. Win or lose, Cotto always delivers something for the fans, and I expect him to take the fight to Floyd Mayweather. That said, Mayweather is a technical genius, and, according to a statistical study, he might be the most efficient defensive fighter in the history of the sport. So much of what makes Cotto exciting are his flaws as a fighter, and Mayweather is a such an expert at exploiting the flaws of offensive-minded fighters that conventional wisdom would have Mayweather winning a wash. On the other hand, Cotto has shown himself to be a malleable strategist and he now has a great boxing mind in his corner in the form of Dr. Pedro Diaz. If Cotto can continue to build on the more conservative boxer-puncher style he’s been developing since his loss to Manny Pacquiao in 2009, he might be able to show Mayweather a combination of power, physical strength and technique that he hasn’t seen since his controversial first fight against Jose Luis Castillo. I would be ecstatic to see Cotto pull off the upset, but Mayweather’s perfect technique will probably take him to a decision victory. Of course, in a world where Paulie Malignaggi knocked someone out last weekend, anything could happen.”

Gordon Marino: “Cotto by a split decision. You have to carefully pressure and back up Floyd to beat him and I think Cotto can do that. He also has a good jab which, as Oscar proved, you can catch Floyd with. Finally,  Miguel has the mental strength not to freak out and get overly frustrated by Mayweather.”

Norman Marcus: “The UD will go to Mayweather. The only chance that Cotto has is to get inside and pound him with body shots to slow him down, then go for a KO. If Mayweather can stay on his bicycle he wins.”

Matt McGrain: “Cotto is Mayweather’s inferior in just about every sense of the word. There’s no shame in that and Cotto still may be amongst the fifteen best disciples of chosen discipline anywhere in the world, but Douglasesque shocks aside this will be a wide UD or stoppage win for Floyd Mayweather.”

Ezra Salkin: “One thing is clear, no one outside of Paulie “The Magic Man” Malignaggi is giving Cotto a shot. Not for the first time, I may be buying the 24/7 hype. IMHO Miguel Cotto is the most dangerous of any of Floyd’s big-name opponents. In addition to being the strongest, he combines a wealth of big fight experience while still being four years younger. That’s something that can’t be said for Floyd’s other opponents who, if they had experience they were at the end of their career, but if they had youth they weren’t quite ready to perform at the “Pretty Boy” level; if they fell somewhere in the middle they were probably moving up in weight. Couple that with the fact that Miguel has always shown, with the exception of his fight with prime machinegun-bazooka Manny, that he’s versatile and can adapt to speedier opponents—Malignaggi, Judah, Mosley, Foreman. Plus, he’s so damn serious…At 35, Floyd’s boxed only three rounds since May 2010 and his 0 might be ready to go. I could say the same for Canelo, whose hittableness and eagerness to mix it up could prove disastrous against a perceived shot Sugar Shane. My prediction…at least one of these of these fights won’t go according to the GBP plan.”

Ted Sares: “Floyd Mayweather does his fighting at lengthy time intervals—some call it cherry picking, but conversely he should suffer from lack of tune-ups and resultant ring rust. The fact is, however, an inactive PBF always shows up with all cylinders tuned and working and with little or no sign of rust. Unless this changes, Floyd should be able to make Miguel Cotto fade in the later rounds as Cotto runs out of fuel while at the same time Mayweather zips opens his remarkable tool kit and begins to assemble and display the various surgical and blunt instruments with which he will school Miguel for the remainder of the bout. In this scenario, look for Mayweather to make Cotto look like the fighter who lost to Pac Man. Heck, if Mayweather can make Juan Manuel Marquez look helpless over 12 rounds, he should be able to do the same with this hombre. Floyd by dominant UD.”

Michael Schmidt: “Speed and footwork is the difference in this one and it is as simple as that. You have to love the great fighter, boxer, warrior, class act that Cotto is. But Floyd is going to pull the trigger time and time again before Miguel, whether first or on counters after good defense. Floyd will use angles and timely counters to stay off the ropes unless he feels it is time to go to the ropes. Cotto showed against Mosley in the middle to late rounds that he is a great boxer but he will not have the speed to keep up in this one and the Mosley days for Cotto are more than a few ring years past. The ‘B’ plan is Cotto playing bull to Floyd’s matador and there is not a better matador in the business and has not been for a longggggggg time. Time will show that Miguel’s chief second, Mr. Diaz, is one of the greats, but he will not have a ‘C’ plan for Floyd. Cotto’s face will start to show wear and tear by the fifth. The other item that is not mentioned often, and it should—and if one goes back and looks at some of Money’s fights as against Judah—is that Floyd is a tough guy and takes great shots, body or head, the limited time that he is available for same. When or if Miguel gets through they will not be shots that Floyd does not see coming—the type that put you on the seat of your pants. I see Money by late round stoppage or walkaway decision with Cotto having nothing to be ashamed of. Look for Mayweather’s short uppercuts landing often as the fight goes on. No quit in Cotto and Hall of Famer for sure. For Money a showcase of again why he is special and beats Manny big when or if they meet.”

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  1. Matt 06:57am, 05/06/2012

    Anybody who picked Cotto should just stop talking about boxing. Period.

  2. raxman 02:24am, 05/06/2012

    its interesting reading these after the event that although plenty saw the fight as a one sided floyd victory no one got close to how it would play out that way. floyd spending so much time on the ropes and fighting inside - can’t wait now for the plethora of “Floyd’s legs are gone” comments

  3. The Thresher 09:09pm, 05/05/2012

    Ezra Salkin. Good call.

  4. Tony Capoocia 06:17pm, 05/05/2012

    I have it for Floyd. Think this fight will be stopped in Round 8. Will be close in the first 5, then Floyd will turn it up and Cotto will slow down. That will be Cotto’s downfall.

  5. the thresher 09:22am, 05/05/2012

    8-1-?? for Floyd

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