Odds and Predictions: Thurman-Collazo / Herrera-Lundy

By Boxing Analytics on July 11, 2015
Odds and Predictions: Thurman-Collazo / Herrera-Lundy
Keith Thurman gets it on with Luis Collazo and Mauricio Herrera fights Hank Lundy.

When it comes to Thurman vs. Collazo and Herrera vs. Lundy, our advice is don’t be on these fights; we do not see a theoretical margin…

Keith Thurman vs. Luis Collazo

Sportsbook lists this fight as -6000 for Thurman and +1325 for Collazo. In other words, a punter (bettor) has to risk $6,000 to win $100. If you believe Thurman has better than a 98.4% chance of winning, then you should bet on Thurman. If you believe Collazo has a better than 7% chance of winning, then bet on Collazo. 

Our advice: Don’t bet on this fight; we do not see a theoretical margin

Tony Harrison vs. Willie Nelson

Sportsbook lists this fight as -400 for Harrison and +300 for Nelson. If you believe Harrison has better than an 80% chance of winning, then you should bet on Harrison. If you believe Nelson has a better than 25% chance of winning, then bet on Nelson. 

Our advice: We see a theoretical margin by betting on Harrison, who we believe has about an 85% chance of winning.

Mauricio Herrera vs. Hank Lundy

Sportsbook lists this fight as -185 for Herrera and +150 for Lundy. If you believe Herrera has better than a 65% chance of winning, then you should bet on Herrera. If you believe Lundy has a better than 40% chance of winning, then bet on Lundy. 

Our advice: Don’t bet on this fight; we do not see a theoretical margin.

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  1. TheSweetScience 08:04pm, 07/11/2015

    I wanna apologize to all my fav. Commenters on here, as well as to those i dont see as often… For being so long-winded and wordy, cuz of my love for boxing. My longing for witnessing the surprise “classics” that i always love to see land!  But, my major apology, is for the darn “auto-corrects” my ipad has begun making for some reason, and all the typos. What in the world!? Ha

  2. TheSweetScience 07:56pm, 07/11/2015

    I thought luis c. Looked hungry and awesome. The way he lit up in his crazed face after coming within a punch of putting thurman down! I really felt for collazo in this one. The guy has been shocking people in over-achieving his entire career. I dont think it was fair he had to take this fight, having to yet again prove himself that his career is still worthy of activity… How many fights does he have to look good in to finally at least get his name mentioned begore the fight? All night we heard thurman spoken if (pre-fight, undercard, etc). Collazo, not even mentioned. After a long, upstart career, he deserves some sort of mention. Thrn he walks thurman down the entire fight, and all we hear is that thurman looked great when he didnt fall over. Dont get me wrong, i am a thurman supporter. I like him. I would be happy enuff if he is one of the ones that “take over” for mayweather as a king (even though, depending who is fighting this week, we hear that how many are the heir appearent? GGG, canelo, khan, now thurman etc etc etc)... I do like thurman. Im merely saying, collazo has put his time in, deserves a lil praise when he has “the next great thing” breathless, dizzy against the ropes, and loses on his stool, cuz of a headbutt that was opened up by a punch or two. I like thurman, but can he really be happy that colazzo got ended there? All night, we hear that thurman needs to win, and win dramatically. But really, it wasnt even his punch that was the drama in the fight, and then it stops outta nowhere. Collazo couldnt show his hungry heart longer, and thurman didnt get chance to show power late. Cuz he was dillusional in saying “we broke luis down”. Thats not exactly right. It was actually somewhat similar to khan not exactly making a statement that HE deserves floyd in september. Collazo was put in there so thurman could prove that he can knockout a crafty,odd, defensive, good scrapping fighter, similar to what floyd swaggers (in style. Not saying he has floyd talent). But, yet again, everyones hunger for “free boxing” goes somewhat listless. And mr. “One time” seems to have stopped knocking guys out when his name got put in the lights. It sux that i sound like a pouty, negative, hater… But the fact is, im actually a thurman fan (not my fav, but a fan for sure). But i really, again, come out feeling bad for a scrappy, firey underdog, like collazo, and really wanted to see the late rounds! Right when it was really shaping up to be the better premier boxing champ. Fight, wammo, darn! Haha

  3. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo aka Gimpel 01:00pm, 07/11/2015

    Thurman has gone the distance in three of his last six….the only early KO came when Diaz packed it in. He carries his power late….not so much in eleven and twelve with Guerrero. The real bet here is if Luis can make it to the final bell.

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