Pacquiao-Algieri Predictions

By Boxing News on November 21, 2014
Pacquiao-Algieri Predictions
Does Algieri have what it takes to beat a seasoned but diminished Pacquiao? (Sloan Art)

An 8-1 underdog, Algieri has been breathlessly compared to Rocky and Horatio Alger and has maximized his 15 minutes…

Saturday night at the Venetian Macau’s Cotai Arena in Macau, China, WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao (58-5-2, 38 KOs), from General Santos City, Philippines, defends his title against undefeated WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri (20-0, 8 KOs), from Huntington, New York. In tune with these topsy-turvy times, Algieri has generated the lion’s share of publicity. An 8-1 underdog, he has been breathlessly compared to Rocky and Horatio Alger and has maximized his 15 minutes. But does Algieri have what it takes to beat a seasoned but diminished Pacquiao? This is how the Boxing.com writers see Saturday’s fight between Manny Pacquiao and Chris Algieri.

Adam Berlin: “Chris Algieri showed heart and skill in his victory over Ruslan Provodnikov—kudos to the kid from Huntington, LI, who proved toughness is natured as well as nurtured. While that fight earned Algieri a shot at one of boxing’s pound-for-pound bests, it’s not the best barometer of what will happen Saturday night in Macao. After some rough early rounds against Provodnikov, college-educated Algieri recognized that the Russian’s come-forward style was one-dimensional, and he adjusted accordingly, using his quick hands and feet to win a split decision. Manny Pacquiao is no Ruslan Provodnikov. PacMan is a veteran of 63 fights to Algieri’s 20, and while he’s not the fighter he once was, he’s still a master of ring geography with a degree in making adjustments. Plus, if the sound of leather hitting mitts on HBO’s 24/7 is any indication of real power, Pacquiao’s hands are heavier than Algieri’s. This will be an interesting, strategic fight at the outset, but as the rounds progress, as young Algieri, who grew up close to the ocean, is dragged into those proverbial deep waters, the fight will get easier and easier for Manny Pacquiao, who wins by decision.”

Teron Briggs: “I’m so tempted to pick Algieri to upset Pacman this weekend, but I just can’t. I want to because I think Algieri presents a number of issues for Pacman that the latter hasn’t had to deal with in recent years. Algieri’s reach, 72 inches, is the longest of any recent Pacquiao opponent, other than Antonio Margarito. The big difference there is Chris actually utilizes his reach advantage by boxing from a distance, while Antonio liked to mix it up, and he’s not nearly as stationary as Margarito who moved around the ring like he had cement in his boots. Algieri is a pretty adapt boxer, who does a good job of using angles to throw shots from awkward places. I’m picking Pacman for three reasons. His hand speed should be a big problem for Chris who hasn’t faced anyone with that kind of quickness. Pacman’s power is a game changer that could stop an opponent at any point in a fight and Chris doesn’t pack enough of a punch to make Manny scared to throw his power shots. I like Manny to win a 12-round unanimous decision and take 8 or 9 of the 12 rounds.”

Jay Bulger: “I feel bad for Algieri’s face. He lacks the speed, power, and experience to compete with Pacquiao. PAC MAN TKO in 6.”

Mike Casey: “Goodness knows, we need as many good guys as we can get in this life, yet it’s a curious quirk of human nature that we want to start throwing darts at a guy who is too good to be true. I have read all the stories and all the hype on Chris Algieri and I am now in dire need of detoxification from all the cornball and sugar. Here is a good-looking kid with a story to tell that would bring tears to the eyes of those who blub about everything. I don’t doubt that he has some talent, but he has unsteadily wobbled his way into a fight with Manny Pacquiao and seems to be flying in a paper plane fueled by hope and a belief that destiny has already determined the result. Algieri says it doesn’t matter what Pacquiao does, implying that what Chris Algieri does will dictate the outcome. But Pacquiao can still do quite a lot and probably won’t let Algieri off the hook if he decks him twice in the opening round, as did Ruslan Provodnikov. As Mike Tyson once said, ‘Everyone has a plan ‘til they get punched in the mouth.’ Even if Manny’s mind is on something else entirely on Saturday night, he must surely win—how and when he likes.”

George Thomas Clark: “Several years ago Freddie Roach, in a radio interview I heard, said he hoped his star pupil Manny Pacquiao was only going to fight one or two more times because he wanted to make sure Manny never got hurt. Roach, a brain-damaged former fighter, has evidently revised the career blueprint to one or two fights a year as long as Manny can eventually stand up after a devastating knockout and win most of his other matches. That’s okay, I suppose. That’s boxing. Roach is addicted and so’s Manny. Their next thrill comes against tall welterweight Chris Algieri, long-armed with a 72-inch reach on a 5-feet-10 frame. Like most observers, I may be addicted, too. I won’t be thinking about the ballet Saturday evening. I’ll be wondering if Manny, who’ll yield five inches in reach, can get inside and regularly hurt slick Algieri who, after surviving a couple of early knockdowns, decisively outboxed brutish Ruslan Provodnikov. Most boxers and fans have another difficulty besides walking the other way. They usually pick the guy they want to win. That’s what I’m doing. I want Manny’s to be too strong and quick and tough for the slender New York dancer. I think I’ve convinced myself. I doubt he’ll knock out Algieri in the first round, as Freddie Roach claims Manny told him he would. But I think he’ll rough him up while slipping most of the punches Provodnikov ate. I think Manny Pacquiao will win. I don’t know if Algieri will still be standing.”

Jill Diamond: “Hype is hype but Pacquiao is the real deal. Slowed down… so what? At his slowest he’s still a freight train running over most opponents. Maybe the fourth? Definitely a UD.”

Robert Ecksel: “Every Pacquiao fight is an event and this fight is no different. The only difference between this fight and the fights preceding it is that Manny is fighting a relative unknown. Chris Algieri shocked the world when he outpointed Ruslan Provodnikov, but Pacquiao is no Provodnikov. Algieri boxes beautifully and we’ll see some of that beautiful boxing in the early rounds. But Pacquiao also boxes beautifully and unlike Algieri, he hits hard. Those hard punches will take a toll as the fight progresses. Algieri’s a good-looking kid, but by the championship rounds, if it goes that far, he won’t be good-looking anymore.”

Mohummad Humza Elahi: “It’s this type of fight that sometimes makes me a cynic when it comes to boxing and in particular, Top Rank. What is about to follow is pure conjecture: TR has been trying to find a star that will compete with Mayweather and Golden Boy for a while now. At the moment, that star is Pacquiao, but the Filipino legend can’t go on forever and as soon as Mayweather retires, I believe he will follow because as long as Bob Arum can’t keep the fans’ hopes alive, he no longer has a use for Pacman, despite being the goose that lays the golden eggs. This is only his fourth unique opponent in three years (Marquez x2, Bradley x2 and Rios). TR tried to make Bradley that star; patriotic, unbeaten and a trash-talker. When Bradley got the W against Pacman, the fans rounded on him, no fault of his own and he was decisively beaten in the rematch. Chris Algieri is now the next TR star project. He showed guts against Ruslan, no doubt, but Pacman is too experienced and likely hits too hard for Algieri to cope with. So unless Pacman can score the KO, which I think is unlikely, this has all the hallmarks of an upset, where the kid gets launched into worldwide stardom and fans lament on another robbery for the legend. Wild conspiracy theories? Definitely, but in this sport, sometimes fact is stranger than fiction. Rational prediction: Pac wins UD. TR/Aliens/Illuminati/Conspiracy prediction: Algieri wins SD.”

The Fight Film Collector: “Height is an underappreciated factor within boxing weight classes. In earlier times, height mattered less because boxers, even tall ones, generally fought in close. They also gave away muscle mass to keep their weight down. Taller fighters were tasked with driving their opponent back in order to create range. It made them vulnerable. But that’s all changed. Diet, drugs and training techniques have enabled even the leanest of boxers to arrive with maximum density and power. In addition boxing now has over two generations of boxers who fight, almost exclusively, at a distance, no matter what their height. This style has tipped the balance to the taller fighters, who use footwork and movement to open up punching room, forcing the shorter opponent to do more chasing than punching.  That’s my primary concern for Manny. He’s not as fast or as powerful as he was, and Algieri is smart, strong, well conditioned and stands up to punishment. And he’s got some serious reach. But Manny is a supremely complicated fighter to deal with and is used to fighting bigger guys. As with the Hopkins-Kovalev match, the result with likely depend on how much the favored guy has slipped versus how good the underdog turns out to be.”

Clarence George: “Manny Pacquiao’s best days are back there, sure, but he still has what it takes to beat a Chris Algieri, who’s no more than ‘all right.’ Ruslan Provodnikov couldn’t knock out Algieri, and Pacquiao won’t be any more successful in that regard. The Mansi has won 16 of 23 by kayo, while the Filipino hasn’t knocked out anyone since stopping Miguel Cotto by 12th-round TKO in November 2009—a full five years ago. The difference is that Provodnikov lost (however controversially) to Algieri, while Pacquiao will win…by clear unanimous decision. That said, I wouldn’t mind if the college boy pulled off an upset, if only because it would bring to an end what has become demented gibbering about the Sweet Science’s supposed Holy Grail: Mayweather-Pacquiao.”

Christian Giudice: “Much has been made regarding the recent events surrounding the sudden deterioration of Bernard Hopkins. He was old already, but for the first time we saw him look old and, unfortunately, desperate toward the end of his loss to Sergey Kovalev. One day the same thing will happen to Manny Pacquiao. We won’t know when or even how to identify the subtle hints that will reveal his downfall. Does he have one great mega fight left in him? Yes, but even for this great fighter, that final window of opportunity is closing. Even though Pacquiao proved to be a half step slower and much less accurate in the rematch with Timothy Bradley, he did enough to secure a victory, which shows that even on his off nights, he is still very capable. Despite some of Pacquiao’s deficiencies, Chris Algieri is too young and inexperienced to hold him off. Algieri has an interesting backstory, and a gameplan to follow, but won’t be able to implement it against a fighter who is constantly moving. Pacquiao will hurt Algieri early on, and then stop him by the middle rounds with a barrage against the ropes.”

Johnathan Iverson: “Pacquiao traditionally has issues with technicians, which is why I am certain a Mayweather encounter will be a brutal one-sided affair. Chris Algieri is very tough and is a good technician. I dismiss the ‘runner’ charge from Freddie Roach and others. For him to get up from those monstrous blows rendered by Ruslan Provodnikov and come back to completely outbox him, with one eye shut is highly commendable. This match up will be far more interesting than the experts think. Chris Algieri is a smart boxer. If he can keep from being overwhelmed by the aura of Manny Pacquiao and the magnitude of the moment he may very well surprise the naysayers. Manny Pacquiao has not been the same fighter since he was devastated by Juan Manuel Marquez and he was thought to be declining before that right hand met his face. He hasn’t been completely committed to the sport for some time. However, I think Pacquiao has enough experience to pull it off, but an Algieri decision would not surprise me. Pacquiao by Split Decision.”

Norman Marcus: “Looks like we are seeing another Tim Bradley. A guy that loses fights before our eyes yet wins on the scorecards. Algieri reminds me of Willie Pastrano. A runner that hits like a girl. Provodnikov won the last fight hands down. The guy looked like he was hit by a truck. How many times did the Mongol knock him down? Just like Tim Bradley, after all his recent fights. Kept going to the hospital after the fight yet getting the win. These judges enrage me. Reminds me of what Ancil Hoffman always said to Max Baer late in a fight: ‘Its close Max, you have to knock him out to win.’ That’s the only sure way to beat these judges. My pick? Pacman in a TKO10.”

Gordon Marino: “I am picking Pacquiao by a knockout in rounds 6-8. I think Pacquiao’s flashdance footwork will enable him to pressure Algieri with relatively little risk. The Pacman is most vulnerable to a right hand but that is not one of Algieri’s best weapons. Algieri is going to get driven to the ropes and when he is on the ropes he squares up and is not only and easy target but loses his power. Pacquiao will find the angles and stop him with his thunderous left hand and right hook.”

Joe Masterleo: “This mismatch from Macau remains a Chinese puzzle to me, what with a menacing bulldog (Pacquiao) squaring-up against a pugilistic Shitzu (Algieri). Hardly a dogfight. The bulldog is an 8-division world champion; fierce, resolute and compact with short legs, quickness and a power punch—the proverbial bull in a welterweight China shop. The wee Shitzu, a favorite among Chinese royalty, is alert, scurrying, peevish when irked and an excellent watchdog for sure—but fistically, all bark and no bite.  nd lest we forget, without a Chinaman’s chance. I don’t get it, really. Someone, anyone, please clue me in. Mastering a Chinese puzzle calls for ancient Chinese wisdom, I suppose: Confucius say; ‘matchmakers who cross Bulldog with Shitzu get Bullshit for offspring.’ Leave it to Confucius. I can hear Michael Buffer’s bellowing intro now; ‘L-L-L-E-t-s get ready to BUL-L-L-LSHIT.’ Altogether descript of the genetically defective mongrel breed the promoters are pushing as the real deal this weekend in Macau, China.”

Ezra Salkin: “When you look at a body like Chris Algieri’s, with his height and reach, it’s the type you could imagine posing a problem for Pacquiao. Algieri also possesses the type of confidence that might make you nervous if you’re in Pac’s camp. Listening to him talk about using ‘broken rhythm,’ a la Marquez, to disrupt Pacquiao’s staccato style, also looks good on paper. However, others have tried it before and failed. Oscar De La Hoya hired Nacho Beristain, Marquez’s trainer, to help prepare him for the Pac Man. It didn’t work out; only Marquez can be Marquez and do what he does. Algieri fill find this out Saturday night or Sunday morning. Pac by TKO by the 10th.”

Jeff Weston: “Algieri has a reasonable jab, but is—by nature—too upright. He is the man on the train who can’t quite relax. Pacquiao brings a different level of intensity—one he unfortunately will not be able to live with. 2015 alone and the promise that it holds will will the Pac Man on. If only Algieri hit harder. His lankiness seems to drain him though before a punch is even thrown.”

Peter Wood: “This is a competitive fight. Algieri is a VERY live 7-1 underdog. He will come into the ring in perfect shape—but so will Pacquiao. Manny has too much to lose in this fight—so he won’t. He will force the action and eventually catch Algieri (probably on the ropes). Algieri will fight smart, but he’ll be too cautious and clinch too much. Late in the fight, when Algieri realizes he’s losing, he’ll throw caution to the wind and will get tagged—probably with Pacquiao’s left hook. Pacquiao wins decision.”

Jarrett Zook: “In his controversial decision over Ruslan Provodnikov, Chris Algieri displayed tremendous heart and some decent boxing abilities. However, a victory over such a limited brawler in no way ensures that Algieri will be competitive with a pound-for-pound stud like Pac Man. The first time I saw Provodnikov fight, his total lack of boxing ability was glaringly apparent. Thus, he lost to a light hitting and relatively unknown boxer named Mauricio Herrera. Consequently, I am not overly impressed with Algieri’s lone ‘standout’ victory. We all know what Pac Man is, a great and versatile future hall of famer. Additionally, Pacquiao has looked pretty good recently and unless he starts to show his age he should carry the night with ease. Therefore, I’m going to predict a dominant Pacquiao victory that ends by late round stoppage. Algieri has shown heart, but he also went down two times against Provodnikov. If Provodnikov could catch him a few times, just imagine what Pac will do.”

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  1. carlosdanger 11:18am, 11/22/2014

    get real gang Algieri media overload are the symptoms for even entertaining an algieri chance i guess hearing his back story enough times warrants giving him a snowballs chance in hell of lasting past round 6

  2. Tex Hassler 11:09am, 11/22/2014

    Algieri only has a chance to go the distance with Manny. He has no chance to win. I am sure the money caused Algieri to take this fight but he is not ready to fight on this level.

  3. Eric 10:07am, 11/22/2014

    If a fighter has two arms and two legs there is always a chance for victory. If sports events/fights were won on paper there wouldn’t be any need for the match to take place. Who would’ve thought Buster Douglas would beat Tyson, Leon Spinks over Ali, ‘68 Jets over the Baltimore Colts, ‘69 Mets over the Orioles, the list goes on and on…..... Pacquiao is made of flesh and blood just like the rest of us mortals.

  4. Steven 09:51am, 11/22/2014

    Lets not bullshit ourselves here. Algieri stands ZERO chance of beating Pac. ZERO

  5. The Tache 09:05am, 11/22/2014

    Manny on points

  6. Darrell 03:11am, 11/22/2014

    I love seeing Pacquiao lose but it ain’t going to be the case here…...could be a short night for Algieri…..or a hard long one.  Algieri is a greenhorn at this level, sure he went well enough last time out but even Mr Jab-Jab-Straight Left will call on enough prior experience to find a way past Algieri’s jab and height.

    Unfortunately for Algieri, I say it’s a slaughter at round 6.

  7. Pete The Sneak 06:57pm, 11/21/2014

    OK…Yeah the kid (Algieri) showed a ton of heart against Provo…Yeah, the kid is smart…Yeah the kid has a nice reach advantage and is taller…Yeah, the kid is a great story and lord knows we can use more great stories in this sport… The kid has a lot of Yeah’s attached to him, even to the fact that yeah, he got the fearless editor (the esteemed Mr. Ecksel) to chime in on a prediction…All Good stuff… But NO, he will not beat the Pac Man. Manny may not be as fast as he once was, however he is and will be fast and smart enough to end up winning a UD against a very game, but overmatched Algieri…But yeah, I think the kid will give Pac a good run for his money however…Peace.

  8. procopy 05:16pm, 11/21/2014

    I think its a decision win for the Pacman. Im already tired of hoping and wishing for KO. :)

  9. Koolz 02:57pm, 11/21/2014

    Algieri losers reach will be his downfall in this fight.  He will be hit all night from the Pacman.  I think a TKO will happen in the middle rounds.
    Pacman looked amazing in training.
    Arum isn’t going to get his wish for a rematch or an upset because Pac won’t let it happen, Roach won’t let it happen.

  10. Eric 01:33pm, 11/21/2014

    Need to place a fitty on Algieri with those odds. Wonder if Money Mayweather will place a six-figure bet on the college boy at 8-1?

  11. Galvar 01:11pm, 11/21/2014

    Big Manny fan but I still have my doubts that it’s going to easy for him against Algieri.  I think if Manny doesn’t knock him out by round 4, Algieri will pop shot him and score and look good.  Could be an Algieri- Provo repeat where Algieri did just enough to convince judges he won.

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