Pacquiao-Bradley II: A computer model’s prediction

By Boxing Analytics on April 12, 2014
Pacquiao-Bradley II: A computer model’s prediction
We used all round-by-round scores for both fighters for the past five years in our model.

Since 2009, Manny Pacquiao has won 83% of all rounds on the judges’ scorecards, while Timothy Bradley has won 67% of rounds boxed…

As part of a very detailed statistical analysis conducted by the Pod Index, LLC, in collaboration with, all rounds boxed by both competitors in the last five years were examined. Since 2009, Manny Pacquiao has won 83% of all rounds on the judges’ scorecards, while Timothy Bradley has won 67% of rounds boxed.

Other than in the Bradley fight, nobody has come close to beating Pacquiao on points in the last five years. Bradley, by contrast, has had multiple close calls, including bouts with Juan Manuel Marquez, Kendall Holt, and Ruslan Provodnikov. In fact, of the 36 individual judge scores for the Provodnikov fight, Bradley only won 53% of the total possible points.

As the first chart indicates, Pacquiao traditionally does better on judges’ scorecards than Bradley. Manny’s performance is relatively consistent throughout a 12-round contest, peaking in rounds 3 through 5. Bradley, on the other hand, starts slowly and finishes slowly, showing his best stuff in the middle rounds. Bradley’s performance in the last round is skewed due to the knockdowns by Kendall Holt and Ruslan Provodnikov.

Trend lines have been smoothed for graphical affect

However, in the first fight between Pacquiao and Bradley, Manny was in the driver’s seat for the first half of the fight, while Bradley won over the judges during the second half. As the second chart demonstrates, their first matchup was a tale of two fights.

Trend lines have been smoothed for graphical affect

Using statistics, we are going to take a humorous yet scientific attempt at predicting the exact round-by round outcome of Pacquiao vs. Bradley II. Please remember, this is just for fun. We used all round-by-round judge scores for both fighters for the past five years in our model. In addition, we doubled the weighted contribution of the results of the first Pacquiao-Bradley fight. As the third chart reveals, Manny has the edge, but Bradley keeps it close, actually taking a slight advantage in the third quarter of the match. 

Trend lines have been smoothed for graphical affect

Based on the statistical model, we can project how the round-by-round scores will end up for this intriguing rematch. In chart 4, our model projects that Manny Pacquiao will reclaim his WBO title via unanimous decision. This assumes, of course, that there are no knockouts or knockdowns. 

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  1. Steven 10:26am, 04/13/2014

    @Darrel Darrel you are one loyal fan. We’ll get you a TV with Braille relief so you can feel the fight cause you sure as hell can’t see very well.  Go to that other boxing rag. They would appreciate your ignorant rants over there.

  2. Darrell 09:37pm, 04/12/2014

    Another fix, Bradley robbed this time…...I knew the political decision would come through for Pacquiao though.

    Mayweather EASILY schools both of these guys.

  3. Taliba 04:36pm, 04/12/2014

    My common sense would tell me that Bradley will be KOed within 10 rounds by the Pacman.

  4. German-American Statistician 02:34pm, 04/12/2014

    I am not Filipino. I am German-American.  You wont be making jokes when the announcers vindicate me.

  5. Dr. Ispongklong 02:04pm, 04/12/2014

    Formulated by Filipino statistician Nathaniel Siverio.

  6. bikermike 01:26pm, 04/12/2014

    electric type predictions are kinda right up there with ...cure for baldness…and penis extention adds….

    ...old lion trys to bring back loss from… less older lion…....less older lion knows how to beat old lion…evern two yrs ago…

    Old lion has the ‘push’...but it’s like trying to breath back life into Jim Jefferies…...Old lion is suffering from that horrible chronic ailment….....TIME

  7. bob 09:47am, 04/12/2014

    How reliable are the stats? How scientific and objective were they obtained?

  8. Alex DeJesus 09:40am, 04/12/2014

    Let’s get it on! Winner fights Mayweather.  Manny will win, but it won’t be easy. Bradley is much improved

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