Pacquiao vs. Marquez 4 Predictions

By Boxing News on December 7, 2012
Pacquiao vs. Marquez 4 Predictions
Will Pacquiao be able to put his distractions aside, step it up and rekindle the old fire?

With their first fight ruled a draw, and their two subsequent fights awarded to Pacquiao by controversial decision, this rivalry remains unresolved…

Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, two old rivals, Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez, meet for the fourth time. With their first fight ruled a questionable draw, and their two subsequent fights awarded to Pacquiao by controversial decision, this rivalry remains intense and unresolved. Both men may be past their primes, but they are two of the greatest fighters of their era. Will Pacquiao put his distractions aside and rekindle the old fire? Will Marquez dictate the pace and not just rely on his superb timing and counterpunching? This is how the writers see Pacquiao-Marquez 4.

Adam Berlin: “Think back to the end of their last fight. Right before the decision was announced, Manny Pacquiao, who can feint in the ring but doesn’t possess the best poker face, was the picture of defeat. Unfortunately, the judges got it wrong that night. The Pacquiao/Bradley decision garnered more outrage from the press, but Marquez/Pacquiao III was the bigger travesty. Number four will be Marquez’s fight. He’ll once again show his mastery of ring geography. He’ll once again land the more dramatic blows. And, fueled by injustice, he’ll be more motivated than his familiar rival. For one Las Vegas night, the days when fighters fought each other multiple times will be resurrected, and in an old-school contest of veteran skill and savvy, Marquez will win handily. Let’s hope the judges get it right.”

Cheekay Brandon: “I find myself among the relative minority of boxing writers who looks on to part four of this saga with great enthusiasm. For one, boxing doesn’t provide many fights between all-time greats who are still relevant, and Pacquiao-Marquez will actually go down in history as one of boxing’s great chess matches, a true boxer-puncher dichotomy. I am of the belief that Marquez clearly won two of the fights in this trilogy (the second and third), with one draw (the first) and am pulling for him to put a stamp on his legacy by earning a long-deserved victory. I don’t expect the fourth fight to contain anything different in terms of style: Pacquiao will punch, Marquez will box. The main question is this: do we have reason to believe that Pacquiao’s aggressiveness faded since their fight a year ago? Pacquiao’s activity is the only way that he’ll win this fight and is why Pacquiao is difficult to defeat in a fair decision, as Marquez will outsmart him, and will land the cleaner, harder punches (he always does). Another X-factor is the Marquez muscle that everyone is talking about (and is skeptical of): is this real? Is Marquez actually more muscular and stronger than a year ago? Assuming that this doesn’t come at the expense of quickness and slickness, this could mean more bite in Marquez’s punches. Marquez will hit Pacquiao with some heavy bombs, several of which stun Pacquiao, particularly during the first half of the fight. It will be about even after 6. I look for Pacquiao to bring his legendary offensive barrage, breaking through and hurting Marquez during the championship rounds. In the end: Pacquiao in a clear decision, 8 rounds to 4 via activity, punch output and a strong finish.”

Teron Briggs: “I believe Marquez will put on another exemplary performance against his long time rival Pacquiao and finally get a much deserved decision. Pacquiao will get out to an early lead on the scorecards, as he outworks his older foe, however Marquez’s body attack and counterpunching will eventually wear him down. I see Pacquiao touching the canvas in the championship rounds and Marquez closing the show like the champion he is.”

Slee Christopher: “I was somewhat vexed when this fight was first made. I’d rather see both fighters facing new competition and I found Pacquiao/Marquez III to be a watered down version of the first two fights. Months later and I’m warming up to the fourth installment. I’ve re-watched their first three wars and my intrigue has grown substantially. As have my questions about the fight. How much fire does Pac have left? When will Marquez, at 39, take the kind of ‘step back’ that we saw Miguel Cotto have last week? Will either of these guys—who already fight at a blistering pace—really take it to a new level of activity and risk to take it out of the judges’ hands? This fight is really all about legacy, as each guy wants to close out the rivalry convincingly. The victor is rumored to fight Brandon Rios, which makes for must see TV but isn’t exactly a ‘mega fight’ reward. Conventional wisdom will tell you Pac will win another razor-close decision. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Pac wins via late round stoppage. I know Marquez is certified Pacman kryptonite but I thought Pac took a step forward against Bradley, short of his unwillingness to empty the tank in the championship rounds. I expect he’ll give that extra effort Saturday. I hope I’m right because I ‘m not interested in part V; at least not until the week of the fight.”

Chris Gielty: “Trying to separate these two with reasoned analysis is a thankless task. Pacquiao claims he has gone back to his roots for this fourth go-round with Marquez. But at 33 can the Pride of the Philippines resurrect the judge-friendly, aggressive style that made him one of the sport’s brightest stars? In a move that seems a little strange prior to such an important fight, Alex Ariza, Pacquiao’s strength and conditioning trainer, has also been relegated to a much diminished role, with Pacquiao spending more time with Freddie Roach. As for Juan Manuel Marquez, he has taken the other fork in the road. The crafty counterpuncher with the tidy footwork and refined boxing brain showed up for the third fight in this quadrilogy with a much improved physique. For Saturday night’s tilt, by all accounts Marquez should be even more physically impressive. While in his late 30s, Marquez has managed to pack on pounds of functional muscle while retaining speed and agility. In case you missed it, Marquez has been training with controversial strength and conditioning coach, Angel Hernandez (a.k.a. Angel “Memo” Heredia), whose reputation is less than angelic. It is always going to be hard to separate these two warriors for the purposes of a prediction, but if Pacquiao is unable to recapture the raw, physical explosiveness that characterized the prime of his career and Marquez is able to match or even out-physical Pacquiao (which oddly seems plausible), it is reasonable to assume that Marquez’s superior boxing ability will see the Mexican prevail. The boxing gods, however, have never seemed long on reasoned analysis. As such, on Saturday night the curtain comes down on Pacquiao-Marquez with a (controversial) Majority Draw.”

Christian Giudice: “This fight comes down to who is able to adapt. Manny Pacquiao is fighting a guy who already knows and has exploited his weaknesses, so Juan Manuel Márquez will anticipate every move Pacquiao makes, and strategize accordingly. How do you defend an opponent who holds that level of familiarity? Hopefully, Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach has developed a better fight plan this time around where Pacquiao fights in what Emanuel Steward used to call ‘sprints’ because he can no longer come forward for an entire fight anymore. Ideally, Pacquiao will land those four- and five-punch combinations, then escape, while employing more head movement than he has in past performances. He cannot stand in front of fighters anymore. When Pacquiao does attempt to fight so aggressively, he gets hit repeatedly as soon as he begins to backpedal or take breaks to catch his breath. In his third fight with Márquez, Pacquiao clearly had no Plan B. It was the worst performance I had seen from him. He followed instead of cut off the ring. He never used any efficient head movement, and he rarely, if ever, was balanced or set when he punched. Yes, he had his moments—reminiscent of the old Manny—but mostly he looked as if he were merely biding time until the final bell. So what is he doing to prepare this time around? Hopefully, going back to the fighter he once was in the sense that movement was his strength. His ambushing style was so effective for so long because his aggression was so precise. In the past, Pacquiao would move, land a hook, slip to the side beautifully, and, more importantly, beat his opponent to the punch on the inside with short jabs. Fighters could not catch their breath against him. However, now Pacquiao misses too many punches, and rarely is in position to land power punches. Both he and Roberto Duran moved similarly, and likewise, when Duran could no longer move so efficiently to set up his attacks, he became even more vulnerable than Pacquiao has been in his last couple fights. I always knew there would come a day when someone would end Pacquiao’s reign. Logic tells me that Márquez will finally earn that elusive victory, and that Pacquiao has not made the necessary adjustments in training. My heart tells me never to bet against Manny. Deep down, he has one or two great fights left. I think each fighter will hit the canvas, but ultimately Pacquiao will win a unanimous decision and reassure fans that he is not finished just yet.”

Ben Hoskin: “Last time the two met I felt Marquez was the winner. Manny didn’t stun or inflict any knockdowns unlike fights one and two. Whether it was JMM executing his plan perfectly or Manny’s slight deterioration from the first two bouts, Marquez could quite rightfully feel aggrieved at another agonizingly close decision loss. It should be noted Manny didn’t have the best of camps preparing for the fight with reports of personal problems proving a distraction. In his last out loss to Bradley, the luck Manny had in getting the decision over JMM had deserted him and it was his turn to feel hard done by. Marquez seemed to have the measure of Manny last time out due to Manny only working in fits and starts. The Manny of old was a continuous buzzsaw, this latest iteration cannot sustain such energy. If it goes to a close twelve-round decision, the law of averages suggests JMM will get the nod. I have a feeling however that Manny will be desperate to atone for the contentious Bradley reverse and will not require the judges with an emphatic stoppage. The clamor for a mega-fight with Mayweather will gather pace again.”

Mutaurwa Mapondera: “I predict that these two will fight each other to a standstill once again, the decision will outrage a good number of fans and Top Rank will be able to take a few more whacks at this now clearly dead horse.”

Norman Marcus: “Been there, done that! Strictly a money match for two guys past their prime. If Money May would just fight Manny instead of fighting with his girlfriend, that would be the fight we all want to see.”

Gordon Marino: “Gone back and forth on this one but I hear the Pacman is very fired up for this fight so I’m going with Manny by a unanimous decision. I think the bulked up, 39-year-old Marquez will be too slow and if he is serious about his plan to be more aggressive he is going to get clipped.”

Laurena Marrone: “First, my heart goes out to all of those in the Philippines who lost loved ones because of the typhoon. It is my great hope that this tragic event will not have an impact on Pacquiao’s performance Saturday night. As a man who is known for his commitment to his country and his faith, I can see how this could potentially shake his concentration. Lesser issues have done so in the past. I want a Pacquiao win, as I do not want to see him retire. Of course, he is also my favorite fighter, so that plays into things as well. With the really bizarre (I can’t think of a better word to describe the lunacy) judging these days, I feel that Pacquiao has to win by knockout. If it goes to the scorecards, the judges are likely to give it to Marquez. Now, Marquez may be deserving of that decision, but my point is that things have been so off course with the scorecards recently that I don’t see the judges favoring Pacquiao this time around. There has been too much controversy and too much said about past bad decisions in the Pacquiao/Marquez saga that I believe the judges will try to ‘right’ the past. Pacquiao by knockout in the 10th round, provided that he is mentally ‘there.’”

Robert Mladinich: “Both fighters seem even more determined and hungrier than usual this time, but Marquez appears to be starving for the respect that past victories would have brought him. He seems more capable of doing something different this time, and I expect him to outpoint Pacquiao in a close, competitive fight. Marquez W 12.”

Ezra Salkin: “For some indiscernible reason, I have a feeling that the fourth fight between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez won’t be just the same movie all over again, the way others have said. That means Marquez will either get his hand raised for once or…Manny will finally knock the Mexican out. Because I’m a Pac fan, and I’m tired of Marquez’s whining, I’m going to go with the second theory. I think in the last fight Marquez’s surprise success—he was supposed to get annihilated—was in effect the result of every great fighter’s last hurrah, which all are entitled to. Plus, Manny was off that night, distracted by dire marital problems. Because Marquez is 39, unless Pac really has slipped as much as they say, I don’t think he’ll be able to do a November 2011 repeat performance. I know what everyone else thinks, but to me his effort was worth no more than a draw. Manny the Mexicutioner by shocking 5th round TKO or maybe Marquez by controversial decision in an interesting twist.”

Ted Sares: “I see Pac Man winning this one by another close UD as he comes in with a different and more multi-dimensional attack. Meanwhile, Marquez looks like he is ready to enter a bodybuilding contest, but I wonder if those muscles will allow him to be a fluid and fast as he wants to be. But more to the point, if Roach fails to train Pac to handle JMM’s super counters, then Pac loses. Surely, however, the Pac camp has learned this by now—at least I am betting on it. If not, Roach needs to retire and perhaps so does Manny. One other thing, Marquez can be decked, though he seldom if ever gets hurt. He is very resilient, but 10-8 rounds can add up. As an aside, Marquez consistently leaves his fate in the hands of the judges during these close fights. When he does begin to dictate matters, he backs off and tends to play it safe. Yes, he is more precise with his punches, but Manny is more aggressive and throws more punches. If JMM is to win, he must take more risks and be willing to mix it up in a dangerous manner. I see Manny swarming JMM from the get-go, and unless Marquez takes the kind of risks that might get him knocked out, but also will give him the opportunity to do the same to Manny, he (JMM) will lose again.”

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  1. BB Bergmann 07:09am, 12/09/2012

    Pouring in on one of the best-ever counter-punchers (one with inhuman recuperative abilities), with reckless abandon is not smart boxing. Manny called it “overconfidence”. How did the experience Pacquiao learned over three previous bouts get forgotten so quickly. I just wanted to shake Pacquiao about the shoulders while screaming at him, “He’s a counter-puncher stupid!” All of this played in my head before the bout and that is why I predicted a stoppage by Marquez.

  2. Sharonne abarquez 10:14pm, 12/08/2012

    Marquez win pacquiao knock out

  3. erick john emmanuel pe 09:15pm, 12/08/2012

    paquiao will win this fight

  4. FERNANDO ANTONIO 07:29pm, 12/08/2012


  5. pugknows 02:36pm, 12/08/2012

    I like Ezra Salkin’s prediction. This one will be a shocker and Manny will do the shocking.

  6. the thresher 10:49am, 12/08/2012

    Great quote from Jim Lampley:

    “Personal confrontational psychology, The Olympics is about national teams and individuals, but they don’t face each other face-to-face. There are only two sports where you face each other face-to-face, and all of your physical and psychological attributes are visible and available for the audience to recognize. One is tennis, and in tennis, you don’t hit each other. The other is boxing. That’s what sets boxing apart, that’s what makes boxing so compelling for audiences all around the world. You don’t need to know all the sophisticated nuances of the difference between Marquez the counter puncher and Pacquiao the puncher to understand what it means that these two guys are going to stand a couple feet from each other, they’re gonna smell each other’s breath, they’re gonna taste each other’s sweat and blood, they’re gonna share with each other in a way that nobody else can share with them. They’re gonna leave there knowing more about each other than anybody knows about them, even their wives. Only boxing produces that kind of drama.”

  7. Scorpion 10:13am, 12/08/2012

    Pacquiao will win this fight because he is lean, more focused, and has been training for knockdown power. Marquez has been trying to pull all sorts of things out of his ass like drinking urine and eating feces and now he has resorted to taking juice from his steroid hookup/trainer to bulk up because he knows that he never had the power in his punches to knock down Pacquiao. Also, the boxing Gods look down upon Marquez for being a whining crybaby all this time. No respect. No honor.

  8. Freddie Rios 07:04am, 12/08/2012

    Marquez already knows Pacquiao and he is fearless/  no other fighter knows Pacquiao better than Marquez, let’s see, I believe Marquez can win clearly this one .

  9. Freddie Rios 07:00am, 12/08/2012

    Freddie Roach now is accusing Marquez of been using PED, what a mother cracker, Manny Pacquiao it been know for steroids use for years , ( the mighty mouse) . Marquez is going to beat the hell out ofPpacquiao tonight and I want to to see Crying !

  10. procopy 01:26am, 12/08/2012

    i think pacman should be careful of marquez’s beefed up muscles. i think marquez did this so he can throw more powerful punch although i think heavier hands would make him punch slower, but i guess marquez is expecting the manny will perform at a slower pace just like he did on their last fight and he’ll go sharpshooting all night with those large biceps. i hope manny should be aggressive like he used to and stay away from marquez counters. i expect this to be an all out action fight since this will be their last and they both have something to prove to each of their fans and supporters.

  11. BB Bergmann 08:26pm, 12/07/2012

    Marquez by stoppage.

  12. t2nekski 07:24pm, 12/07/2012

    Pacquiao will definitely snatch this fight.

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