Rios-Alvarado II Predictions

By Boxing News on March 29, 2013
Rios-Alvarado II Predictions
Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios and “Mile High” Mike Alvarado are doing it again Saturday night.

Brandon Rios and Mike Alvarado came to fight left nothing in the ring. Those who like their boxing hot got even more than they bargained for…

On Saturday at the Mandalay in Las Vegas, Nevada, Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios (30-0-1) and “Mile High” Mike Alvarado (33-1) are going to do it again. Their first fight was a Fight of the Year candidate for 2012. Both men came to fight and left nothing in the ring. Their fists were eloquent, their courage off the charts. Those who like their boxing hot got even more than they bargained for. The rematch may not equal their fiery first encounter—rematches rarely do—but if you’re sitting close enough to ringside or your widescreen TV, prepare to have your eyebrows singed. This is how the Boxing.com writers see Rios vs. Alvarado II.

Adam Berlin: “I just saw an exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, featuring work by the great boxing painter George Bellows. In his painting Stag at Sharkey’s, two fighters press into each other so forcefully they seem to meld into one. On Saturday night, this painting will come to life when Brando Rios squares off for the second time against Mike Alvarado. Brandon Rios is that rare fighter whose will is so great, he knows (not believes, not thinks) he won’t lose. And while Mike Alvarado is as tough as they come, he’s entering the ring in the unfortunate position of facing a man called Bam Bam. This fight will be identical to the last—two warriors throwing punches with bad intentions during every second of every round. If Bellows were around to paint the aftermath of this fight, we’d see only one man standing, again. Rios stops Alvarado in the middle rounds.”

Cheekay Brandon: “There’s one prediction I can make with confidence: it won’t be as exciting as the first fight. I am confident in saying so because few fights in the new millennium have been. I thought Alvarado lived a tad too dangerously in the last fight and paid dearly for it. When a fighter loses the way he did, our reflex is to think that he has a suspect chin, giving us little reason to count on a different outcome in a sequel. I think Alvarado can outbox Rios, and he demonstrated this for stretches in their first fight. I expect Alvarado to be more measured and tactful in the sequel, scoring on combinations, using movement to frustrate Rios when he can. His goal will be to duplicate the blueprint set by Richard Abril, who many believed defeated Rios in their April 2012 light welterweight bout. I don’t, however, think Alvarado is made that way. After round 7 or 8, he’ll abandon his ‘secret plan’ in favor of his instincts, which will get him into trouble in the championship rounds. He has little hope of winning a decision, and so I expect any close rounds to be scored in Rios’ favor. I don’t expect it to come to that, however, as Rios will end Alvarado’s night in the 11th round, by technical knockout.”

Mike Casey: “Well, I called it for Mike Alvarado when we were last here in October, and I have believed since then that the victory for Brandon Rios in that memorable first battle is a reliable template for the return match or any number of matches between the boys thereafter. My gut instinct just tells me that Mike needed to take his chance in that first fight. Rios is still on the up. Mike might just be on a gentle slide. He is a very brave and tenacious man who certainly won’t stop trying in his bid to gain revenge. But he will be stopped again if Brandon is on his game. Dull it won’t be, but probably not another barnburner either, although I’ll hold on to my hat just in case. I just hope that Brandon and Mike hold on to their marbles if they keep fighting the way they do.”

Slee Christopher: “Rios-Alvarado I was just an awesome display of boxing barbarianism. Whatever game plan Team Alvarado had to box on the outside went out the window about halfway through the first round. Then we had an all-out war on our hands. These guys weren’t landing power punches, they were landing absolute bombs. This time around I think Alvarado shows a little more discipline; more boxing, less brawling. These are both durable fighters that can take a good punch. I see a more cautious Alvarado stretching the fight into the championship rounds where, down on the cards, he’ll mix it up with a sense of desperation and get stopped by Rios for a second time as a result.”

Clarence George: “These two are so similar in their records and accomplishments that it seems a case of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object. A case of all things being equal? A draw? No. Brandon Rios’ brawling should more than make up for Mike Alvarado’s superior boxing skills. And Rios is a harder hitter and six years younger. Also, Rios is undefeated. Yeah, he drew once, but Alvarado lost once—to Rios. History will repeat itself—a helluva fight and Rios wins. I’ll go out on a limb (well, not really) and predict stoppage by eighth-round TKO.”

Christian Giudice: “I see Rios winning by TKO with a final barrage in the 11th round.”

Ben Hoskin: “As for the second installment of Rios-Alvarado, I, along with most others I imagine, envisage the exact same close quarter action as the first epic fight. I actually had Rios to get the better of the first bout as I felt his better pedigree in the amateurs would serve him better and finally overwhelm his gutsy yet limited opponent. After watching the fantastic event unfold it became apparent Rios was either dismissive of Alvarado’s heavy hands or just plain incapable of boxing and moving. With Brandon it’s war from the first bell to the finish. At times the punishment he took was brutal and the accumulation of such head-first attack (i.e., taking one to give one) will result in serious neurological problems further down the track. I may be unique in that I felt Rios’ conditioning may have been below par in the first bout despite getting the win. I base this on his penchant for just staying in the pocket and bombing away with reckless abandon. It felt like a ‘shit or bust’ game-plan with no intention to move his opponent around the ring. The stoppage was a trifle premature but nobody can blame the referee for halting proceedings after such a brutal collision. For me Alvarado will get the win this time as I felt he was the only guy who mixed up his game plan. At times Rios looked ready to be stopped and if the bout was taking place in the UK, the referee would have halted the fight two or three rounds previously in Alvarado’s favor. I love both fighters’ styles but unless this leopard changes his spots, Rios will be stopped by Mike between the sixth and ninth from the accumulation of solid power shots. I fervently hope the undoubted machismo these two warriors bring to the ring doesn’t end in a tragic scenario like two similar brawlers from yesteryear, McClellan and Benn. The ref needs to be strong willed and merciful so the wonderful occasion we’re about to witness is remembered for the right reasons and none that detract from this greatest of sports.”

Norman Marcus: “Rios/Alvarado II could be another slugfest if Brandon Rios again pressures Mike Alvarado into a close in battle. If Mike wants to shift the odds in his favor this time, he will box his opponent from long range. He should fight with his head and stick to his game plan. If Mike changes gears again and decides to mix it up with Brandon, the outcome is hard to predict. Don’t get mad this time Mike get even—box the guy. Boxer Alvarado by UD.”

David Matthew: “I can’t help but get the feeling that Rios may soon bite off more than he can chew. He was electric in his ability to disassemble Alvarado in the first bout, goading Alvarado into his kitchen of firebrand brawling. However, had Alvarado been able to remain disciplined, he would’ve controlled the moments of boxing throughout. Because Rios is so scintillating to watch mow down top-level opponents, we tend to forgive & forget his gift against Abril in a fight where Rios was bewilderingly ineffective and easily outboxed. Further, because of the fast lifestyle and questionable regimen Rios employs in between fights, the question must be asked: How long can Rios continue to resurrect himself from zombie-like states on the scales only to transform into a tireless predator just 24 hours later? If Alvarado can pick his spots and focus on ring generalship, I think he outpoints Rios (assuming a competent judicial panel presides over the matter). However, I see him eventually giving in to the urge to scrap, and getting in trouble as soon as he does. As long as Rios can make it his kind of fight, he wins. Nobody in the division is better at banging on the inside in a phone-booth. Rios by middle-round KO.”

Matt McGrain: “You can’t teach a bear to be a snake, but maybe you can’t teach it to dance. Alvarado has already shown a step or two in his career, but enough to keep Rios off, and more importantly under control? I think you would need to be expert. Nevertheless, Alvarado is the interesting party here. We know what Rios is going to do. My guess is that if Alvarado hasn’t made major adjustments or he feels those going away from him early, he goes early too, perhaps in as few as four. Should he find himself able to stay out of the furnace he might last the twelve but I think it’s more likely he’ll find himself involved in the intense firefights he needs to avoid and fall behind before getting stopped late.”

Robert Mladinich: “There is no reason to think the rematch should be any different from the first fight. They don’t seem capable of changing their styles, and the style of Rios is well-suited for Alvarado. This fight will pick up where the previous one left off, and Rios will once again stop Alvarado in the middle rounds, probably around the seventh. Rios TKO 7.”

Ezra Salkin: “I think the only difference in this fight will be the fact that Alvarado is now aware that Rios can take his worst and he can’t take Rios’ worst. Rios obviously knows this, too. Cognizance of this fact won’t change either man’s tactics but it will enliven Rios and exhaust Alvarado with anxiety. For that reason, I predict Rios will score the KO one round sooner, in the sixth. I actually wish they had waited on this rematch rather than potentially burn out two stars that could keep the boxing landscape bright for a few years.”

Ted Sares: “Mile High has been in four consecutive wars beginning with his grueling win over Gabriel Martinez (27-2-1) on July 30, 2011. Mike has taken too much punishment for too long a time. In his last four outings, he has fought almost 37 rounds. His days of early stoppage wins seem to have waned. As soon as Alvarado is on the receiving end of one of Rios’ sustained and deadly combos, he will slow down markedly. Rios will then press the advantage and the fight will be halted early and mercifully. Fact is, Mike will grow old overnight in this one. Four wars in a row are simply too many. I see this ending like the second Arguello-Pryor match.”

G.E. Simons: “Brandon Rios and Mike Alvarado both believe that they own the ring. They both believe in taking no prisoners. Neither believes in taking a step back. And both believe that they are going to win when they meet for the second time this Saturday night in Las Vegas. Their first fight in California in October 2012 was truly epic. A storm in pugilistic heaven. A violent ballet on a canvas battlefield. A blood spattered junkyard fight between two pedigree dogs in their prime. Forsix rounds they traded thunder. Rios smiled through most of it. Alvarado smiled back for a while too before shipping a big right at the end of the 6th. Still shaken Alvarado was stopped on his feet in the 7th by a Rios barrage that earned him a TKO victory and his opponent’s unbeaten record. For me Rios had the edge even before the 6th round’s right hand game-changer. He looked more robust. He looked like he could digest the exchanges a little better and still return to the buffet table ready for more. Alvarado stuffed himself too but just didn’t look like he had a big enough appetite to make it to the dessert sundae. So prediction. For me it will be Rios Grande again. Similar fight. Similar outcome. Rios by stoppage around the middle of the 12 rounds, setting up a third fight between this era’s Mickey Ward and Arturo Gatti.”

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  1. the thresher 09:33pm, 03/30/2013

    It would be nice if Robert could remove this thread, no?

  2. Jason 07:33pm, 03/29/2013

    I got Mike. If I’m wrong, Rios is destined. I just think Rios’ style invites too much punishment, and he’ll see the 40s is harder to make a living at fighting the way he does. If Mike boxes and avoids pointless exchanges unless he has a real purpose, he’ll stop Rios.

    Mike Alvarado win by TKO.

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