Ward/Froch Prediction: When Razorbacks Fly

By "Old Yank" Schneider on December 17, 2011
Ward/Froch Prediction: When Razorbacks Fly
Carl Froch lost more rounds than he won against the highly suspect Jermain Taylor

Froch has stumbled, lost, and struggled to make it to the tournament finals and Ward has breezed his way through barely losing a round…

When pigs fly is a storyline that is as old as the boxing truism speed kills! And when all the trash talking is over, the truism “speed kills” is why Carl Froch beats Andre Ward when pigs fly.

Carl Froch, a razorback kind of pig who can rip-you-apart with power and a relentless attacking will, is the prohibitive underdog in this bout. We have two champions entering the ring in a partial unification of the super middleweight title and yet one of them is a serious underdog. This writer suspects the odds-makers have got it right this time (as they so often do).

Carl Froch will meet Andre Ward at Boardwalk Hall in the great fight town of Atlantic City tonight and will to have his chance to try to prove that pigs can in fact fly and speed does not kill. He will have his chance to show why so many see him as a very live dog. And it is perfectly fair to ask why anyone could be so harsh in predicting the outcome of this bout with words like “when pigs fly.” And it is perfectly fair to counter the question by asking why so much hype exists over Carl Froch. What exactly will he bring into the ring Saturday night that will allow pigs to fly and allow him to neutralize the truism “speed kills”? What exactly has he done?

Much is made of the tough-as-nails, baptism-by-fire path that Carl Froch took to make it to the finals of the Super Six World Boxing Classic. To be sure the list of opponents he faced is likely the toughest road anyone in the tournament traveled. But, did Froch breeze his way down that path or did he stumble and stumble badly along the way?

Froch entered the first round of the tournament pitted against Jermain Taylor. In spite of the fact that Froch was already holding the WBC title, he entered the bout as the underdog. After being knocked down in the fourth and badly behind on points late in the bout, why he was the underdog in this bout seemed clear and justified. But Taylor proved what many already suspected (and what would, in retrospect, be proven again and again)—he’s a gifted athlete, not a gifted fighter, and his gas tank is just not large enough to take him the distance of 12 hard rounds against quality competition. Again one can argue unnecessary harshness in this assessment and rule that it is patently unfair to Froch and cruelly diminishes his achievement. But the fact remains that Froch was behind on the scorecards at the time of his win by stoppage in the final seconds of the bout. The fact remains that Froch lost more rounds than he won against the highly suspect Taylor. The fact remains that this was no smooth path for Carl Froch—he struggled and stumbled his way to his first round tournament win.

In round number two of the Super Six World Boxing Classic Froch met the seriously inexperienced Andre Dirrell (18-0, with 13 wins via KO coming in). Dirrell was slick and fast, but had a whopping 78 rounds of pro experience when he stepped in the ring against Froch. In a split decision that many feel was about as strong an example of hometown cooking as we’ll ever get to see, Carl Froch stumbled and wrestled his way to a win. Again one can argue that it is unfair to diminish Froch’s win against Dirrell, but the fact remains that this was far from a cakewalk for Froch. The fact remains that Froch essentially lost as many rounds as he won and arguably lost more than he won. The fact remains that Carl Froch had stumbled his way through the second round of the tournament.

Mikkel Kessler was the opponent for Carl Froch in his next tournament bout. To be sure this was a fan-friendly, rock ‘em-sock ‘em bout. And Carl Froch lost. He lost!  Many argue that Kessler’s win was a hometown decision. But the fact remains that Froch lost more rounds than he won on the official scorecards. The fact remains that Froch did worse than stumble his way through this third round tournament bout—he lost!

Froch’s next bout was against the hard-hitting Arthur Abraham—the smallest man in the tournament by far. Many say, and I agree, that Carl Froch exposed Abraham as being too small and one-dimensional to be fighting with the big boys at 168. This was a great win for Froch and it showed that there might be more to Froch’s boxing skills than initially met the eye. Froch was dominant and for the first time in what seemed an eternity, Froch did not lose as many rounds as he won. Abraham was later eliminated from the tournament by Andre Ward after he’d already lost to Dirrell and Froch earlier in the Super Six. The fact remains that Abraham was exposed as being not up to the level of the others in the tournament. There is no question that Froch breezed his way through Abraham; but this was to be the only bout in the entire tournament where Froch would have no excuses, a clear-cut win without any stumbles.

Froch’s last bout was against the always ready Glen Johnson—the now always ready, 42-year-old Glen Johnson; the always ready 42 year-old light heavyweight fighting at 168, Glen Johnson (read: old and somewhat dried out Johnson). There are not enough fine words I can write about Glen Johnson, but enough already, he’s done. What we can say about Carl Froch in his fine boxing effort against the 42- year-old, past-it Johnson is that the best he could pull out of this bout was a majority decision. The fact remains that Froch lost a lot of rounds against the 42-year-old, rugged but far from speedy Johnson. The fact remains that Froch stumbled and struggled in his last bout leading up to the Super Six World Boxing Classic Finals.

To keep this short and simple, by contrast the speedster, slickster and mover Andre Ward has barely lost a round in the entire tournament.

A truism in boxing as true as “speed kills” is “anything can happen.” But, c’mon folks, Carl Froch has stumbled, lost, and struggled to make it to the tournament finals and Ward has breezed his way through barely losing a round.

Disallowing the truism that “anything can happen,” this is as easy a fight to predict as any we will ever get to see. When pigs fly Froch will beat Ward and I’ve not seen any pigs with wings hanging around Boardwalk Hall so far this Saturday, day of the bout, morning.

Speed kills and pigs don’t fly! Ward will win by either a wide and comfortable UD or via a late round TKO—I’m going out on a limb and predicting a late round TKO victory for Andre Ward.

Got a prediction? Let’s hear it!

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Andre Dirrell vs Carl Froch THE ROBBERY IN NOTTINGHAM Part 1 of 2

Andre Dirrell vs Carl Froch THE ROBBERY IN NOTTINGHAM Part 2 of 2

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Froch vs Kessler part 2.avi

Froch vs Kessler part 3.avi

Froch vs Kessler part 4.avi

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  1. "Old Yank" Schneider 08:24am, 12/19/2011

    The Thresher—Your points were well made—and I appreciate them all. Thanx for keeping a dialogue going while I was away—great comments! I was a huge fan of Buchanan, Hamed, Lewis, Calzaghe, Benn, Eubank and many, many other Brit fighters. My eye is on the fighter, not on the flag he flies on his front porch. The fight game is alive and vibrant in the UK; inevitably the UK (like any other big fight nation), will produce some fighters I feel have been over-rated. Mexico has produced a ton of great fighters and a number who might be over-rated (like Margarito in my opinion). Same can be said for Puerto Rico (I thought Kermit Cintron, Angel Manfredy and John John Molina and others were at times hyped a tad beyond their true gifts – I’ve been very hard on Cintron over the years). In the incredible noise leading up to Froch/Ward, I thought a lot was being missed in not taking enough stock in how many rounds Froch had lost; how close a call he experienced with Taylor and Dirrell and his loss to Kessler and his somewhat unnecessarily difficult time with Johnson. I thought these things spoke to a path strewn with some rocks and boulders that Froch “stumbled” over—I thought too many were willing to give Froch a “pass” by waiving these things off that looked like (in my opinion) they spoke volumes in contrast to Ward’s breezing through the tournament; I thought it needed greater attention. From my seat in Boardwalk Hall Froch was never really in the bout all night long. From my angle, he took one round and I saw one or two others where a generous judge could grant Froch the round – my card read 119-109. Most criticism I’ve read over the judging suggests that the two cards at 115-113 was not a fight most fans thought they witnessed – most seem to think the 118-110 card was about right. Was Ward really that fast and that good defensively? Or was Froch a bit less than he’d been made out to be? Maybe it’s a little of both. PEACE

  2. "Old Yank" Schneider 07:32am, 12/19/2011

    FranklinDallas—I enjoyed your comments. I get your point that I was possibly being foolish in how bold a position I took.

  3. "Old Yank" Schneider 07:29am, 12/19/2011

    Irish Frankie—I’m getting back late to you because my access has been spotty. GREAT POSTS on your part. Thankfully we got to see a fairly clean bout.

  4. "Old Yank" Schneider 07:26am, 12/19/2011

    daniboy—My bad! Good catch!

  5. the thresher 06:43am, 12/19/2011

    daniboi, you from upstate NY?

  6. daniboi 04:09am, 12/19/2011

    Wow! Froch defeated Taylor in the super six round one. Except that he didn’t.. Taylor lost by ko to froch BEFORE the tourney. Round 1 SS he lost to Abraham.  Get your facts together Mr Bull.

  7. "Old Yank" Schneider 05:47pm, 12/18/2011

    JC45—I guess I did go over the top. I did however, on many occasions (however not in this article) state that Ward was my #3 at 168. In retrospect I should have painted a bit more balance. Thanx for the comments.

  8. "Old Yank" Schneider 05:43pm, 12/18/2011

    Mike Casey—Perhaps I was too bold and too harsh.

  9. raxman 02:25pm, 12/18/2011

    styles make fights and all that. ward is never gonna stop miranda but what were those scores? anyway onto the awards thread!!!

  10. the thresher 02:21pm, 12/18/2011

    Ward went 12 with Miranda. Bute waxed Miranda in 3.

    Bute carried Johnson for 12 rounds. Johnson gave Froch hell.

  11. raxman 02:17pm, 12/18/2011

    that is not fair ted. i do not hate on him. i have said time and again that he looks the real deal - my criticism is that he hasn’t beaten anyone of note. while froch has fought who he has, and ward and kessler who they have - bute has fought johnson, andrade (who ko’d him and probably the first in the line of recent bad referee acts), miranda, mendy,magee etc - they hardly compare. now i won’t be at all surprised if bute comes out and beats froch, ward and kessler - and if he does i will say without a hint of irony that i knew he had it in him - i’ll just add that i wasnt about to LOVE on him until he proved it! i get why he fights who he fights in canada - its the same thing mundine has been doing here for 10years - maximum money minimum risk - but i’m not their financial advisors - i’m a boxing fan who wants to see the best fight the best like i vaguely remember from being a teen in the 80’s.

  12. the thresher 02:05pm, 12/18/2011

    I’ve already done the analysis on Bute’s opponents. As for Bute vs. Dirrell, that would be agreat fight for as long as it lasted and it would not last long.

    Why do you “hate” on Bute so much? The guy conducts himsely with great comportment and is very well liked by other fighters.

  13. raxman 02:01pm, 12/18/2011

    but ted - who’s he knocked out? andrade? miranda? both well punished fighters and not nearly skillful enough to match him. and the rest have been a bunch of b graders. i’m not saying bute isnt all that he may be. but as of now he’s still just a hype job, home town protected hero - until he proves otherwise against - ward, froch or maybe even kessler. no one else counts in the division. dirrell is joke. the boy has zero heart. i’m sorry but i forgave him running and holding vs froch for the game he showed v abraham but then the injury (that came up pre ward) stunk of convenience - if its bute vs dirrell then it’ll be a shocker

  14. the thresher 07:52am, 12/18/2011

    I think it’s important to point out that the saying “when pigs fly” may be a US one and that it might get misunderstood by those from oither countries.  It means the same thing as “that will happen when hell freezes over.” So that it means that will happen “when pgs fly.”

  15. the thresher 05:36am, 12/18/2011

    rax, Bute is a rare one punch KO artist and can put anyone away with his laser-like uppercut. That’s what sests him apart. Ward is not a KO artist. Far from it. He lacks shock and awe.

  16. JC45 10:07pm, 12/17/2011

    I’d definitely make Ward fighter of the year Ted. He now holds both the WBC and the WBA 168 lb titles. In a shallow field he gets it for mine.

  17. raxman 09:51pm, 12/17/2011

    ted - i’m not sold on bute like you are. he’s beaten nobody but a past it boiled down warrior in johnson and a couple of gate keepers - one of whom knocked him out. bute looks the goods no doubt but plenty of guys have looked good against lesser opposition - jeff lacy anyone?

  18. the thresher 09:08pm, 12/17/2011

    Mike Casey, get your butt back on here. We need you, matey.

  19. the thresher 09:08pm, 12/17/2011

    And if he meets a guy who can handle his inside work and who has power, he might have issues. That sounds like BUTE to me..

  20. raxman 08:47pm, 12/17/2011

    you have got to love the old school work on the inside don’t you? like hopkins and floyd ward is obviously a great student of the sport and has some great teacher(s) along the way. to fight chest-chest like he did really was the difference. that and i think we all predicted that froch was underestimating the sting to wards punches. ted’s right though if anything is going to hurt him down the track its the lack of genuine punch power.

  21. the thresher 08:30pm, 12/17/2011

    115-113 twice was a disgrace. 118-110 was correct.

  22. the thresher 08:29pm, 12/17/2011

    The one thing Ward lacks is shock and awe.

  23. the thresher 08:28pm, 12/17/2011

    jc, is he Fighter of the Year?

  24. JC45 08:03pm, 12/17/2011

    I watched a stream with the U.K commentary team and they had Ward winning by a mile . Glenn McCrory and McGuigan were very impressed by Ward. I had it 10 rounds Ward , one round to Froch and one even. Ward impresses me Ted. He’s got the best jab going around pound for pound. Incredibly versatile fighter. He’s one I wouldn’t call limited ;-) Maybe limited in the fact that if he was losing he couldn’t knock you out ala Leonard v Hearns or Robinson v Fullmer & Turpin . I enjoyed the fight , two tough , hard and intelligent fighters. Cheers mate.

  25. the thresher 07:41pm, 12/17/2011

    Well, as predicted, Watd wins, but I was shiocked at how close the scoring went. Also, Gus Johnson digraced himself (once again) with his terribly one-sided commentary. My God, gets your nose out from between Ward’s a—crack Gus.

  26. the thresher 05:50pm, 12/17/2011

    Kell Brook Wins Easy in American Debut

  27. the thresher 05:18pm, 12/17/2011

    You had better be kidding Mike.

  28. mikecasey 04:42pm, 12/17/2011

    I think Carl wins this one, but - as I have already stated elsewhere here -I can see it for Andre. The author continues to disappoint me with his insular attitude. Back in the eighties, the tacky Bert Sugar (who allegedly ransacked Nat Fleischer’s Ring Museum) and Randy Gordon had an almost infantile anti-Brit attitude; they even claimed at one point that Jim Watt was lucky to beat Sean O’Grady - despite the fact that Jim spanked Sean out of sight (I was at ringside for that one). Yank, I know you to be a good man who means well. But like it or not, America is no longer the king of the hill sportingly or politically. The rant of a frustrated Brit? Well, decide for yourself. San Francisco has been my secondary home since 1974 and I have always paid my full taxes to Uncle Sam. Your choice of words clump and clatter with all the sublety of size sixteen boots. What’s the ‘pigs’ thing all about? Never mind. I hereby resign and will write privately for my own pleasure henceforth.

  29. the thresher 03:04pm, 12/17/2011

    JC, get your Marquez’s straight!! :twisted:

  30. the thresher 03:04pm, 12/17/2011

    The fact that Froch struggled is jst what might give him an edge here. If in fact Ward wenrt through the SS smooth as butter, the questions becomes: What will he do if he finds himself in trouble?

    Once again, Ward has more to lose than Froch. Expectations have now been set for Froch to lose. Ward has become a strong favorite. Pressure is NOW on Ward.

  31. raxman 02:54pm, 12/17/2011

    JC - you know i;m with you as i love froch too mate but you’re argument is flawed - taylor was beaten twice by pavlik and then had only fought jeff lacy at 68, kessler was coming off a loss to ward and abraham one from dirrell - and johnson was boiled down to 68 and well over cooked age wise. you can find fault in any fighters resume just like you can flip it to praise- i would say that floyd beat a bigger champion in oscar and at his weight, a top10 p4p in hatton who is only considered over rated now because of floyd exposing him, mosley was favored to win and coming off a great win vs margarito and jmm was a top 10p4p who floyd fought after nearly 18mth out of the ring without a warm up. and ortiz was a young big welterweight champ coming off a big win where he didnt quit in fact got up from the canvas to win. and baldomir? well he was the lineal champ from a legacy perspective thats a good win. see you can twist anything if you want - espec after the event when its easy to say a fighter is shot or old sugar shane was thought by loads of expert to be the one who would beat floyd. i love froch but initially didnt because i thought he looked terrible it was only when he kept winning that i got on board. the truth is that every fight he’s been in is a potential loss for him,and thats what makes him so exciting to watch - to see how he’ll pull it out this time.

  32. JC45 02:06pm, 12/17/2011

    While it was a foolish thing to do you have to give Khan credit for fighting Peterson in D.C . Real champs like Ali never gave a rats bum about hometown advantages . Ali was always fighting blokes in their hometowns or fighting on neutral ground.In his first reign he defended against Chuvalo , Cooper , Mildenberger and London in their hometowns.

  33. JC45 02:00pm, 12/17/2011

    Geezuz , youre a bit hard on Froch , Ron. I picked Ward to win but Im a big wrap on Carl’s old school qualities. He actually fights the best contenders at his weight. A novel practice , I know. Pascal , Jermain Taylor , Dirrell , Kessler , Abraham and GlennJohnson. I’d actually rate that as a superior recent resume than say Floyd or Manny’s last 6 fights. Look at Floyds last 6 fights. Baldomir ( worse than anyone Froch fought), Oscar ( a part time fighter who was 10 years past his best ), Hatton ( overrated and smaller than Floyd ), Marquez ( great fighter but dudded at the weigh in ), Shane Mosely ( an old man ) and Victor Ortiz ( a quitter ) . All Floyds opponents were either old , smaller than Floyd or had mental weaknesses. Carl’s opponents except Abraham are the same size as him and had decent form . Mannys last six is full of old men , guys who had just lost and paper champs like Diaz at lightweight. Gimme a Froch over the cherrypicking so called greats any day. When do Manny or Floyd fight in their opponents hometown like Froch did against Kessler ? Never. Rant over , Cheers All. Looking forward to the fight.

  34. raxman 01:27pm, 12/17/2011

    i’ve put my money on ward by ko - i steered kill of the last 3 rounds which is what i think your picking - i took the straight ko/tko at 6-1 - but i also took a saver bet on the dq and the NC as i think there is a big chance of either happening. i love froch though. he’s like a real life rocky. by the looks of him he’s not a boxer bootlace but he somehow finds a way to win, time and again. but you can’t gut out victories all the time and as floyd has proven ad nausem there is no substitute for class - and ward has the sort of boxing class that floyd has.  i see this as being very similar to floyd v hatton.

  35. the thresher 01:26pm, 12/17/2011

    If a guy waxes another in the last round, he wins the fight by KO. Marciano did that with Walcot in the 13th and LaMotta did that with Dauthille with seconds remaing. Grant caught Botha with 37 seconds. All were behind. SO what? They won. And so did Froch when he put Taylor to sleep for only the second time in his career and that was NOT in the Super Six and Rax points out.

  36. raxman 01:18pm, 12/17/2011

    Froch v Taylor was pre tournament - Froch’s first defence. round 1 fight was Dirrell

  37. the thresher 12:55pm, 12/17/2011

    “And it is perfectly fair to ask why anyone could be so harsh in predicting the outcome of this bout with words like “when pigs fly.”

    That’s easy. You have had a longstanding dislike of Hatton, Khan, Haye, and Froch. Doesn’t take Einsten to figure that out. Now, with one of these guys an underdog, it’s only logical for you to go after him with vigor. Go for it. Have your fun while you can.

    TO disrespect Froch’s fight history while praising it in earlier posts seems downright weird. The guy has fought arguably the toughest schedule in the Super Six. Ward has not come close to that. In fact, Ward’s schedule looks downright soft to me in comparion yet Ward can’t KO anyone.

    You have shown great disrespect to Froch here saying that he “stumbled” his way to a loss to Kessler. That’s just plain wrong.

    I get a strong sense of “hate” behind this piece and am bothered by it. Maybe that’s because don’ hate on boxers, but it’s just something that I submit belongs in a post rather than in an article.

    Gosh, after Ward beats Froch, idread to see what you will have to say about Bute and/or Kessler.

    Bottom line: based ON THIS, if I were Froch I’d forfeit the fight and go back to the UK

  38. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo 11:59am, 12/17/2011

    Here’s a prediction Yank….if there is zero tolerance for head butts tonight, Ward will be DQ’d out and the result will be no less satisfying than Money and B-Hop’s last outings!

  39. The Tache 11:46am, 12/17/2011

    As a fellow Brit I will be hoping Froch wins, but can see the writers point, even though it is fairly damning assessment of Froch’s recent career.
    I agree with FrankinDallas, Ward is deserving favourite but I would give Froch more than a “pigs might fly” chance.
    As long as he is still in there he is still dangerous and would go out on his shield if need be. Seeing as Ward has breezed through, how would he react if the going did get tough?

  40. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo 11:35am, 12/17/2011

    I thought the Holy Grail was an “American” Heavyweight Champion….for now it just might be an “American” Super Middleweight Champion. If this is the case, let’s just hope that Ward reaches his goal without resorting to fouls and without the help of an incompetent referee and biased judges joining him on the quest.

  41. Irish Frankie Crawford Beat Saijo 11:15am, 12/17/2011

    Ken Buchanan taught Laguna and Ortiz a few lessons as well all those years ago…..let’s just hope that history doesn’t repeat and Ward plays Duran to Froch’s Buchanan tonight.

  42. FrankinDallas 11:04am, 12/17/2011

    You sure disrespect Froch’s fight history but leave out Ward’s fights. Ward has had basically 4 fights with good boxers…his last 4. He headbutted Kessler into submission but the rest were UD’s. If Froch beating a “dried up” Johnson was no big deal, then what does Ward going 12rds with Green mean when Glen John KO’d his arrogant butt, and Froch convincingly beat Johnson. Froch beat Kessler, come on; the Dirrell fight was close but not I believe a “home town decision”. Personally, I think Ward will win, but don’t give Froch no chance at all. You might learn that pigs fly and hogs get slaughtered.

  43. Don from Prov 09:27am, 12/17/2011

    One cannot argue too much with the breakdown of how each man got to this point—or what that breakdown indicates.  I was not a fan of either fighter when the tournament began: I’m a fan of Ward’s now, and I’ve come to like Froch for his grit.  Though I have long thought that Carl’s chin was somewhat overrated, and while he doesn’t seem to possess the tendency (or the skills?) to run, I doubt he’ll be pounded into submission unless a cut or injury is involved.  I won’t be cheering for Froch tonight but will be cheering for him to make this a good fight.  As for the idea of speed kills, well, Carlos Ortiz taught Ismael Laguna a long time ago that cliches don’t always hold.  And Frazier, even in losing two of three to Ali, belied the old adage as well.  And Ken Norton?  Both Ali and Holmes suffered at his hands—so speed AND skills don’t kill, not completely.  Yet Froch is no Ortiz and so I am left hoping that grit will = more than many expect, and that means a real fight.

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